Nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and compound fertilizer are humorously compared to "F4" in the fertilizer industry for the time being. However, they did not perform the "dominating" trick. Instead, the insiders have been pondering over the weakness of various fertilizers so far, with little movement in light storage, high pressure in goods delivery and strong bearish mood. Only nitrogen fertilizer and urea stand out in the tight encirclement, the market has recovered and the price has been raised, but at the same time, the urea market is not a reckless adjustment, but a "hacksaw" situation of rising and falling, lagging behind and rising.

 At present, the price of mainstream urea in Hebei Province is about 1680-1710 yuan / ton, that in Shandong Province is about 1670-1720 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia is about 1500-1570 yuan / ton. Of course, the transaction can be preferential. Due to the mixed effect of the Limited good and the continuous bad, the base gas of urea price increase is slightly insufficient, and the local market has cooled down, so the basic market inevitably has a price No market. How can we develop the "plot" of the hacksaw style?

On the one hand, it depends on the start-up changes of urea enterprises. According to statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industry operating rate of urea enterprises is about 45.75%, and the daily output is about 128400 tons. The price of liquid ammonia closely related to it rebounds strongly and continues to rise, which is full support for urea. If the price of urea has a downward trend, the production focus of some enterprises will shift to liquid ammonia, then there is still a way for urea to retreat. In the near future, the topic of limited supply of raw natural gas and high price gas has been put on the hot spot again, such as the problem of natural gas supply in Sichuan and Chongqing, In addition, due to environmental protection and safety inspection in Shaanxi, Henan, Jiangsu and other places, some urea enterprises were limited or stopped production, and the start-up decreased. However, in the long run, the liquid ammonia market will be limited by transportation, storage and other factors. Before the Spring Festival, there should be a wave of decline in the market, which will weaken the support for urea, which urea enterprises have to be on guard against.

On the other hand, the overall demand of industry and agriculture is limited. There is a long time span for agricultural fertilizer use. If there is a big variable in fertilizer preparation, there is a big risk. The big agricultural resources group also knows that the stakes are still flexible operation with use and purchase, and the secondary or grass-roots dealers will not reserve urea at this time. For the time being, plywood factories need not place too much expectation on industrial demand. Under the heavy pressure of environmental protection inspection, as well as the factors of plywood factories themselves and their benefits, the operating rate is low, and there will not be a large number of purchases before this year. The purchase of compound fertilizer factories is the key factor for the urea market to turn better. Although the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is poor and the policies are difficult to come out, the production before the Spring Festival is still to be carried out, Construction is slowly picking up, and the purchase of nitrogen fertilizer raw materials will be increased in the near future.

The valence of ammonium chloride, a small nitrogen fertilizer, supports urea. The improvement of ammonium chloride market is a small surprise. The minimum policy has been reduced in succession, the volume of goods has also increased, the price is temporarily stable, the stable shipment is the current situation of ammonium chloride market, and the "drag" on urea has weakened.

In conclusion, the complex negative and positive factors lead to the saw saw like development of the market stalemate. It is expected that urea will continue to make small noises, and there is no opportunity for a big rise in short-term prices, and there is no expectation of price reduction.