In the middle of December, all parts of the country really entered the cold winter. Like the climate, the fertilizer market is also relatively bleak. In addition to the recent attempt to recover the urea market, all other kinds of fertilizer are "waiting for prosperity". The rebound of domestic urea price in many areas undoubtedly benefits from the reduction of upstream supply and the increase of downstream demand. Obviously, the benefits are limited. As the future market of urea is gradually being denied, there are more and more rumors and expectations that India will bid in recent days.

According to official statistics, as of December 15, the sales volume of urea in India in this month reached 2.4 million tons. At this speed, it is estimated that the total sales volume of urea in India in December will exceed 4.8 million tons, a substantial increase from 4.39 million tons in the same period last year. According to statistics on December 12, the total urea inventory in India is 7.073 million tons, of which only 792000 tons are left in the port. In view of the substantial acceleration of the urea sales process in India, its demand is also imminent. Although the recent announcement of urea bidding has not been confirmed by the local fertilizer Department, it is only the Indian standard expectation, which is enough to temporarily stabilize the current domestic winter storage market mentality. However, for compound fertilizer, this may be the last chance to win the battle by urea before the Spring Festival.

First of all, the price has stabilized. After a series of price cuts, the price of compound fertilizer finally stopped falling and stabilized. Indeed, at this stage, the mainstream price of compound fertilizer has dropped 200 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last year, but the trend has become stable, which to some extent gives the downstream stock confidence. The reason for the relatively stable quotation of winter storage is that first, the raw material cost is slightly supported, the urea market is strong, and the price of phosphorus and potassium fertilizer is close to the bottom, which hinders the further decline of the cost of compound fertilizer; second, since winter storage has been pushed forward, the quotation and policy of multiple advance receipts have been basically clear, and the price will fluctuate or not be very obvious in the short term, so it is the best choice to select stock.

Secondly, the demand is increasing. For a long time, another main reason that the price of compound fertilizer has not been raised is that its demand is not getting better. Downstream demand not only decreased year-on-year, but also lagged behind the market. The reasons for the increasing demand for downstream compound fertilizer in the near future are: first, the confidence in fertilizer preparation is enhanced, and the main quotation is clear one after another. Based on the conditions of raw materials and supply and demand, the future market is fluctuating or limited; second, the local fertilizer season is near, such as Henan, Anhui and other winter wheat planting areas, and the demand for top dressing of winter wheat is about to start around the Spring Festival, and the current relatively low market price is used for stock preparation, which can not only ensure the safety of the market It not only confirms the source of goods in the selling season, but also avoids the risk of fertilizer preparation as much as possible.

Finally, the shipment is tight before the festival. Winter is an important period for environmental protection, and also a key period for fertilizer enterprises to store and produce in winter. Under the background of "one size fits all" prohibition, the phenomenon of large-scale shutdown has been effectively eliminated. However, the yellow and orange early warning accompanied by poor air quality has also affected the normal production of enterprises to varying degrees. In addition, recently, it has been heard that some parts, such as Jilin Provincial Expressway, have been closed down At the entrance of the road, the weighing and testing of freight vehicles will be carried out in an all-round way. The phenomenon of over limit and overload has become a history. It also indicates that the freight of automobile transportation will face a new round of price rising tide. The tense situation of transportation before the festival renders the trading atmosphere of the winter storage market.

To sum up, most of the hope of the future urea market in China lies in the future urea bidding in India. However, whether the Indian standard is issued or not is not clear, so only the Indian standard is expected or not has too much persuasive power. Therefore, under the premise that the urea market takes up a lot of negative space, it is more likely that the composite fertilizer winter storage market will continue to be weak and stable before the Spring Festival.