As new year's Day approaches, the fertilizer market in 2019 ushers in the final sprint stage. As we all know, this year's winter storage market also lags behind obviously. The upstream production and sales and downstream stock are not smooth. Up to now, the progress of winter storage and stock of downstream compound fertilizer in most regions is nearly 40% of the total. Although it is slightly lower than the same period of previous years or even basically flat, the market atmosphere is unsatisfactory.

There is still nearly a month to Spring Festival, and there is still room for compound fertilizer to be stored in winter. The much anticipated urea bid for India was released at the end of last week, with an indefinite number of bids to be opened at the end of the month and a scheduled shipment around the Spring Festival. Before that, the domestic urea market fluctuated frequently. Originally, the last bidding was issued at the end of the year in India or was used by domestic market people to boost the urea market. Unexpectedly, this was not the case. At the beginning of the week, the urea prices in Shandong, Lianghe and other regions were collectively reduced by 20-30 yuan / ton. In the case of insufficient domestic industrial demand and unsatisfactory new orders of urea plants, the prices may continue Therefore, it can be seen that before the printing standard can not be truly implemented, only shouting is not enough to stir up the market, and urea prices still pose a certain threat to the compound fertilizer winter storage in the short term.

First, the cost of raw materials remains low. It is understood that the cost of raw materials for 45% chlorine / sulfur based universal series is 1611 yuan / ton and 1853 yuan / ton, respectively, which is basically the same as that in November. Nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium raw materials market has been at the bottom level for several consecutive days, and there is no good support in the short term, so it is difficult for raw materials prices to rebound substantially. Not surprisingly, the raw material cost of compound fertilizer will remain at the above level, with limited fluctuation. In addition, recently, there are many low prices of chlorine based fertilizer in some areas, such as Jiangsu Province. It is heard that 45% of chlorine based fertilizer has the lowest turnover or up to 1700 yuan / ton. In addition to the fact that ammonium chloride is the main raw material of nitrogen fertilizer, it reflects that the cost of phosphorus and potassium fertilizer also has a lower price level.

Secondly, the surplus demand will not come. Compared with the initial stage of winter storage, the atmosphere of local winter storage is indeed slightly better in the near future, but the actual transaction situation is still general. As the Spring Festival approaches, and the enterprise's quotation and policy are basically clear, many news indicates that large-scale centralized stocking activities will be carried out in the downstream or in the near future. However, urea price drops unexpectedly again, and the potential for future market price decline of compound fertilizer is also increasing. In addition, this year's agricultural Spring Festival is earlier than previous years, and the fertilizer season is still long in some regions after the festival, so dealers choose the festival After the operation, the first is to take less risk, the second is to supply enough, shortage, out of stock situation is not common.

Finally, the price of alternative products is low. Generally, as the substitute fertilizer of compound fertilizer, the market of diammonium is more weak. The price of 64% diammonium arriving in Northeast China is 2400 yuan / ton, which is "amazing" compared with the same period last year. The historical low price of diammonium has affected the market of compound fertilizer to a certain extent. Many market news believe that the current diammonium is more "cost-effective" than the compound fertilizer, and more markets are willing to replace the compound fertilizer with Diammonium. As a result, the originally bleak compound fertilizer market has been greatly impacted again. Local markets, such as the lower reaches of North China and Northwest China, purchase the replacement of diammonium crop compound fertilizer The situation of products has increased.

To sum up, the price of urea in China dropped unexpectedly again when the printing standard arrived on schedule. For the future market of winter storage of compound fertilizer, the negative price is more than the positive price. In the near future, the transaction price of compound fertilizer is still weak. Once the printing standard fails to effectively boost the domestic urea market after its implementation, the following quotation of winter storage of compound fertilizer is still possible to be slightly loose.