In 2019, there are a lot of bids for urea in India, and the number of bids is also higher than expected. Due to the better rainy season in India, the demand for urea in India is higher than that in previous years. Near the end of the year, another bid is coming. On December 20, mmtc company of India issued a new bid for the import of non quantitative urea, with the latest shipment date of January 28, 2020 (Chinese Spring Festival is January 25, 2020), and the bid opening on December 27.

 Or not export, slow price reduction domestic sales? At that time, the price track was that as soon as the bidding price came out, the domestic urea price first increased slightly and then gradually fell back.

Or will it fall if it doesn't rise? See below.

 first of all, as always, the proportion of exports in the total consumption of urea in China is still not too large, so there is no need to pay too much attention to it. From January to October, 3.89 million tons of urea were exported, and almost 1 / 3 of the urea was transferred to Hong Kong. Compared with domestic agricultural demand of more than 30 million tons and industrial demand of more than 15 million tons, the export still slightly affected the rise and fall of domestic prices in terms of price or certain psychological impact, and the export volume still need not be too concerned. Although this is a bid for price increase, according to the current Middle East offshore 240-245 US dollars, China offshore 250 US dollars, exchange rate 7, the total port price is only 1750 yuan, less the average 50 yuan of port miscellaneous, less the 50-100 yuan of factory to port freight, the equivalent factory ex factory price is still lower than the domestic sales price.

Secondly, exports are not worth it, but there is little hope for domestic trade in the short term. The industrial holiday has poor benefits. It's approaching double day, especially the environmental protection warning is intermittent, and there's no loss in fighting again after the year. The agriculture needs to take urea, but there's still plenty of time. January 25 is the Spring Festival, February 4 is the Spring Festival, February 8 is the Lantern Festival. It seems that the temperature is not allowed to fertilize. It seems that urea can be taken after the year before.

Again, the supply rate will probably reach a high point after January 15. A gas head plant in Henan, a gas head plant in Sichuan and Chongqing, and a gas head plant in Inner Mongolia are all likely to resume production. At that time, the total daily output of urea will reach more than 135000 tons. At present, the operating rate of urea is a little low, with a daily output of only 123000 tons. At present, the price of urea is stagnant and falling slowly. Linyi's delivery price even occasionally rises.

in short, if there is no change in policy, if the manufacturer is not blindly pulling up, the urea price will continue to be weak and stalemate in the short term, occasionally some customers will worry about transportation, worry about the shortage of selling time after the Spring Festival and take delivery of the goods, plus Indian bidding can moderately win the bid for urea goods, or give domestic dealers a certain international price to increase the domestic price It is suggested that under these factors, local prices will be similar to the small increase after printing in July. However, in a comprehensive view, the urea price before the Spring Festival does not have the conditions to rise. After a small increase, the urea price will be lowered. Only after a reduction can more orders be received for more than half a month before and after the Spring Festival. It is also possible that India will not rise after the bid opening on July 27, but only stable 。

In a word, this time's printing is "chicken ribs". If we plan for a long time, considering that the new domestic production capacity may be more than 2 million tons in 2020, we should win a part of the bidding properly. If we compromise the export, we will be able to have more confidence to increase one or two rounds in spring.