After the bell of Christmas rings, we will usher in the new year's day of 2020, and the Spring Festival will wave to us not far away, so 2019 will come to an end quietly and quickly. Remember that in 2017, the price of compound fertilizer was greatly affected by environmental protection, while in 2018, the price of compound fertilizer was fluctuating, which had a great impact on environmental protection. However, under the pressure of demand in 2019, the price of compound fertilizer went down all the way. Will compound fertilizer break through the current predicament in 2020? Or will it continue the same path in 2019

Negative factors flood the whole year, the market of compound fertilizer is relatively bleak.

First of all, the price of raw materials fluctuates very frequently. Looking at the raw material market in 2019, the price of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium is mainly downward. Although the price of urea fluctuates from 1890 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 1650 yuan / ton at the end of the year, the price decline has exceeded 200 yuan / ton. In the short term, the speculation of various factors such as printing, environmental protection and futures is very limited; the price of sulfur is downward, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is poor, and the demand of lake is very limited The ex factory quotation of monoammonium phosphate in North China also dropped from 2150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 1750 yuan / ton, with a drop of about 300 yuan / ton; the arrival price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake area at the beginning of the year was 2420 yuan / ton, and the arrival price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake dropped to 2030 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with a drop of more than 300 yuan / ton. Looking at the astonishing figures of the price decline of NPK, we can understand the price decline of compound fertilizer.

Second, downstream demand is uncertain. The psychological shadow of the so-called "rising prices in the off season and falling prices in the peak season" is always on the minds of the downstream. Especially last year, grain prices kept falling, while the dealers in the early stage of chemical fertilizer reserve suffered heavy losses and serious psychological setbacks in fertilizer preparation. Therefore, the biggest reflection of the downstream in 2019 is that they will not prepare a large amount of fertilizer in the off season, and they will start to reserve when the fertilizer is near, although the price is low and the products are explosive It often appears, but it is difficult to build up downstream confidence in a large area.

Secondly, the starting level is low, but the competition of compound fertilizer is very fierce. Throughout 2019, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises mostly hovers between 40% and 50%, enterprises dare not start a large number of operations, and some enterprises in Shandong and Hebei are not enough to start due to environmental protection restrictions, and a few compound fertilizer enterprises are forced to relocate, even though such a low operation has not reversed the situation of oversupply, the supply of compound fertilizer products is still greater than its capacity, and the amount of fertilizer is constantly being used In the case of reduction, the competition among enterprises becomes very fierce, and various kinds of policies such as explosive products and ultra-low prices emerge in endlessly, but up to the end of the year, the overall market of compound fertilizer is still very low.

There are few favorable factors. Is there any play in the new year's transshipment?

First of all, the traditional compound fertilizer industry has encountered a bottleneck, while the new fertilizer industry is emerging. Although the price war of traditional fertilizer is hard to be fought, and new fertilizers have appeared in major exhibitions this year, including humic acid, fungicide, organic fertilizer and other new fertilizers are constantly pouring out, which also shows that the profit space of traditional fertilizer is squeezed relatively low, while some compound fertilizer enterprises are transforming into new fertilizers, which may be a new direction, but the financial strength of enterprises And publicity is also a big test.

Secondly, the speed of capacity elimination is increasing, and large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises are listed in the elimination ranks. In the past few years, the reorganization and bankruptcy of the compound fertilizer enterprises mostly happened in the small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises, while in 2019, the large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises could not escape the tragic situation of elimination. Many large factories in Shandong area went bankrupt and reorganized, most of the small factories stopped production to wait and see, the speed of production capacity elimination increased again, but the real and complete elimination has not yet come, so the next few years are life and death for the traditional compound fertilizer The critical period of death.