New year's day, January 1 of the Gregorian calendar, is commonly known as "new year" in most countries of the world. Yuan means "beginning", and the beginning of every number is called "Yuan"; Dan means "day"; and "New Year's Day" means "initial day". On the first day of the new year, all walks of life are trying to get rid of the "old face" and meet the "new climate". However, what is the situation of the fertilizer market that people have been expecting for a long time? What are the surprises?
 . Although the market is not good, the post market of compound fertilizer is still expected, so what surprises will it bring to people?
Firstly, the short-term price is stable. At present, the mainstream price of compound fertilizer is indeed at a low level, and even the factory price of general-purpose fertilizer in some areas is close to the cost line level. It can be seen that, no accident, it is unlikely to continue to reduce prices substantially. In terms of the current market trend of compound fertilizer raw materials, it is stable or dominant in the later stage. The urea market moved forward with little impact of price rise and fall in some regions. In addition to the recent increase of printing mark, the price may remain stable temporarily. The phosphate fertilizer market continued to be weak, and the trading before the festival was light, so was the significance of enterprise price adjustment. In the case of slow release of domestic demand and unclear international market orientation, the potash fertilizer market could hardly move greatly.
Secondly, short-term demand is stable. As the last sprint stage before the Spring Festival, the remaining demand of some key areas of winter storage, such as central plains and Northeast China, may be released one after another. Although there is plenty of time for operation after the festival, the terminal will make up the order in a timely and appropriate manner considering the changeable market. In view of the weak winter storage market this year and the difficulty in pricing of the compound fertilizer enterprises, only interest based collection is available at the initial stage of startup, and the downstream acceptance is not high. So far, the local terminal reserve is less than half of the same period of previous years, so-called surplus demand or large storage space, once effectively released before the Spring Festival, will directly boost the heat of the current winter storage market of compound fertilizer.
Finally, short-term supply is stable. By the end of last week, the overall operating rate of large-scale compound fertilizer enterprises in China was about 45%, which was basically the same as that in early December. Since the start of winter storage market, the start-up trend of compound fertilizer enterprises is slowly rising, although the growth rate is small, but the trend is mainly upward. In winter, the situation of local environmental protection in the heating period in the northern region is more severe, and the normal production of chemical fertilizer enterprises is seriously tested. Under the guidance of the policy of "one size fits all", the enterprises that meet the requirements of ecological environmental protection shall not take the measures of centralized production suspension and renovation. As a result, the phenomenon of so-called tight price of land and speculation of enterprises will rarely appear.
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