The previous analysis article mentioned that the successive resumption of gas head urea enterprises in Southwest China will cause the urea market to fall into a price reduction vortex. It is sure that after a small increase, the urea market will return to calm, and then the urea prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi, Hebei and southwest regions have slightly dropped, according to statistics, about 10-20 yuan / ton. Before the Spring Festival, the urea market will remain a mess. How to end? There is little expectation on demand. We need to see if the liquid ammonia closely related to it can clean up the mess?

Now, the market of liquid ammonia in the north and the south is very similar. The high price in the north is strong, while the low price in the south is weak, but the prices of some enterprises are slowly falling. In the near future, some enterprises in North China and East China will shift their production focus from liquid ammonia to urea. In addition, some downstream ammonia enterprises are preparing to purchase raw materials during the Spring Festival. The price of liquid ammonia will increase up to 200 yuan / ton, with a high overall price level. However, in Central China, Northwest China and other regions, due to the excessive supply of liquid ammonia, the price has always been low and consolidated. However, some enterprises also pay due to the temporary maintenance of devices Ge was tentatively up-regulated. Back to the problems mentioned above, at this time, the urea price falls locally, and the rest of the region will inevitably not be affected or impacted. In order to achieve a win-win situation, some enterprises will continue to shift their production focus to liquid ammonia in the short term, so as to alleviate the pressure on the delivery and inventory of urea. However, in addition to the impact of liquid ammonia, other factors affecting the trend of urea cannot be ignored.
 . It is understood that since this week, most of the limited production or shut-down gas head urea enterprises in Southwest China have resumed production. According to statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industry operating rate of urea enterprises has risen to 47.28%, and the daily output has increased to about 132700 tons. In addition, other enterprises have indicated that they will ignite liquid ammonia and then produce urea. In addition, due to the approaching of Spring Festival, the transportation of hazardous chemicals is limited Due to the inconvenient storage of liquid ammonia, limited storage tanks and other factors, and considering the cost, some enterprises will shift their production focus to urea at that time, which means that the starting level of urea enterprises during this period, including the Spring Festival, may be higher than this.
Secondly, the demand for urea should not increase significantly before the Spring Festival. Agricultural demand does not need to be considered for the time being, and the procurement of basic traders has basically come to an end, and the agricultural demand is light; large agricultural material merchants naturally purchase as they use, and make up their positions according to the price before the Spring Festival; industrial plywood plants are mostly shut down, the overall start-up is low, and the demand for urea is significantly reduced; compound fertilizer plants are also basically sufficient in raw material reserves for the Spring Festival, mainly from It is understood in the market that in some areas, such as Hubei and some small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises in Guangdong and Guangxi, the demand for urea will be reduced if there are parking enterprises in other areas. In addition, the limited production under the environmental protection and safety inspection should also be considered, and the Limited transportation should not be ignored.