Recently, with the recovery of production of enterprises in Henan, Anhui, southwest and other places, the overall start-up of urea has been raised recently. According to statistics of China fertilizer network, the daily output of physical urea in China has reached 132700 tons at this stage, which is about 10000 tons higher than the previous low-end daily output, and some enterprises still have plans to resume production before the Spring Festival, and the overall supply still has incremental plans. In addition, Shaanxi and Shaanxi No.1 Due to the rapid price rise in the early stage, some of the pending orders in the hands of urea enterprises have been basically exhausted in the near future, and the price of the factory has declined appropriately in the near future; while some of the market demand increment is not obvious, and some of the enterprises that have not yet filled the orders during the Spring Festival have also declined. From the above points of view, urea bears a relatively dominant position, and there are some pessimistic expectations in some industries. Is there a new round of decline in urea price on the eve of the Spring Festival? In my opinion, it is not so. The following aspects are still favorable, which can hardly support a significant decline in its price:

First of all, some enterprises have locked up orders to be issued during the Spring Festival. For example, the ex factory quotation of large granule urea of some enterprises in Shandong has been raised to the level of 1900 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the waiting orders of small granule have been arranged to the seventh day of the first year. Most enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started to stop collecting money, and the main supply is waiting for delivery in the early stage. The present stage of Lianghe and other places only supplies a small amount of scattered industrial market, and the waiting quantity is acceptable, even if some areas are pre paid by environmental protection Under the influence of the police, the industrial demand has slightly decreased, but for the enterprises that have locked the orders to be issued at present, there is not too much influence, and that is to say, when the price is lowered, according to the dealers' cautious attitude, the overall purchase volume will not increase much, and the current price reduction is not conducive to the market sales after the Spring Festival, so it is difficult for the enterprises that have locked the orders to have the price in the near future Down, and eager to receive orders by the firm's support, price decline is limited.

Secondly, the market demand in the later stage is still strong. Because the influence of agricultural light storage has been weakened year by year, the panic in the downstream market has increased, and the purchase time of chemical fertilizer has been postponed year by year. It is learned that although dealers in all regions have purchased a certain amount of chemical fertilizer at this stage, it is less than 40% of the market demand in spring, and the Spring Festival this year is earlier than the previous year, so the market demand increase after the Spring Festival will be greater than the current market situation The industry is optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival. With the approaching of spring, the production restriction of chemical plants will be eased, and the demand of industry and compound fertilizer market will gradually appear. Even if the overall supply of urea increases, the urea market will not exclude the possibility of price rise.

In combination with the above two points, although there are still some negative effects in the urea market in the near future, the decline of urea price is also limited, but in terms of the current market, the transaction price of urea before the Spring Festival is also difficult to show obvious signs of rising. It is expected that the urea market before the festival will only fluctuate in a narrow range, and most of the upstream and downstream are waiting for the start of the market after the festival.