The number of confirmed cases increases by thousands every day, and the fertilizer market is also affected by the epidemic. Since the resumption of work on February 3, the overall transportation has been greatly restricted. In addition, with the closure of villages and roads, the automobile transportation has basically entered a stage of stagnation. Although the fire transportation can be carried, the freight volume has also been greatly affected. Although the urea production has been reduced, the demand of the downstream market has been reduced More importantly, the overall urea price has declined compared with that before the Spring Festival: the main urea price in Shandong Province is 1620-1660 yuan (ton price, the same below), the reference price is about 1620 yuan, the low end is slightly lower than 10 yuan, the main urea price in Hebei Province is 1640-1650 yuan, the reference price is 1610-1630 yuan, the main urea price in Henan Province is 1660-1670 yuan, and the reference price is 1600-1620 yuan Among them, the mainstream factory quotation of urea in Anhui is 1680-1720 yuan, and that in Sichuan is 1700-1830 yuan. However, it was learned from yesterday afternoon that transportation in some regions of Shandong and Sichuan has been lifted a little. Some factories said that the shipment situation has improved. As the demand for urea is approaching in spring, the attention of the downstream is gradually increasing. Some of the downstream said, is the market demand starting now? According to the above problems, we have come to the conclusion that the demand will increase, but there is no sign of large-scale market start at this stage, mainly due to the following reasons:

First of all, the epidemic situation has not been clarified. Although the insiders call for the relevant departments to open a green channel for the agricultural material industry in order to ensure the use of fertilizer for spring ploughing, up to now, no clear news has been released, and the epidemic situation has not been fully controlled, and the phenomenon of road closures around the country is still continuing. In the short term, the possibility of transportation capacity recovery, such as before the Spring Festival, is relatively low. In order to alleviate the current inventory pressure of some enterprises, appropriate amount of transportation is transferred To the export market, coupled with the continuation of early export orders, some major domestic urea ports said that the current port inventory is not much different from that before the festival, but there are few export orders left, and the current international market price is relatively general. According to the recent production and shipping situation of enterprises, even though the recent transportation has slightly eased, the factory inventory pressure still exists.

Secondly, the industrial market demand is average. Although urea enterprises have resumed production in succession in the near future, the overall start-up of plate plants and compound fertilizer plants in the downstream is relatively low. For example, only a few plants are in production in Linyi area, and the urea receiving price has dropped to 1670-1680 yuan, and sales are blocked. Although the potential demand of compound fertilizer enterprises in the later stage is fair, the purchase quantity of urea is not included in the start-up of current compound fertilizer enterprises Too many, industrial market progress is relatively slow.

Finally, hard agricultural demand has not yet started. At present, some large-scale traders have not entered the market, the enterprise's collection situation is poor, the number of transactions and investments on the market is small, the comprehensive epidemic situation and the time for grass-roots fertilizer use in all regions are poor. Some large-scale traders say that there is still time for purchase in the later period, in addition to the reduction of urea enterprises, in order to ensure the smooth progress of the annual production plan, the possibility of increasing horsepower production in the later period of the plant is high. In the near future, urea The price may continue to decline. I want to stay on the sidelines and wait for further market adjustment.

To sum up, the current low price of urea is not determined by the supply and demand side of the market, but mainly due to the poor transportation. Although the transportation is slightly released, it is still a drop in the bucket for urea with a large base. If the policy is not adjusted, it is expected that the urea market will continue to be weak for some time.