With the continuation of the epidemic, the fertilizer market is almost stagnant, and the most influential link is production and transportation. The key stage of spring market is getting closer and closer. If the current problems cannot be properly solved, how will the subsequent fat market evolve?

At present, many voices of "fighting epidemic and maintaining spring ploughing" have begun to emerge, and some local governments have also made every effort to create green channels for fertilizer enterprises to ensure the normal production of spring ploughing. Although the current enterprise operating rate is low and the transportation is not smooth, there is a gradual improvement expectation. For dealers, step by step is the best choice. After all, the current market is not very out of stock, especially compound fertilizer.

First of all, is the downstream surplus demand really large? The answer may be No. in the last quarter, the winter storage market did not perform well, and there was no hot pick-up scenario. It seems that the downstream stock is not much, but the remaining demand space is very small. The first reason is that the low price of winter storage occurs frequently, and the downstream pick-up is relatively scattered, showing a state of "a small number of times"; the second reason is that the winter storage lags behind obviously, the early market does not move, and the downstream will to pick up the goods in the later period Enhanced.

Secondly, is it really urgent to prepare for farming in the lower reaches? Xiaobian thinks that the dealers at this time may not be in a hurry, even if there is a large number of out of stock, or they may not be nervous. The first reason is that the crop market changes under the influence of the epidemic situation are uncertain, whether it is to continue the downturn or usher in the spring, which needs further observation. The second reason is that there is plenty of time for spring ploughing and fertilizer preparation this year, so it is not necessary to rush to rob the goods, so far there is still enough time to stay To the end market.

Finally, is the upstream supply pressure really high? As mentioned above, at this stage, the start-up and transportation of compound fertilizer enterprises are not ideal, and the voice of market shortage in the later stage is strengthened. However, it is not necessary to worry too much. According to zhongfei.com, due to the stagnation of the market in the early stage, the inventory quantity of some enterprises is acceptable, and once the market is started, the downstream demand can be fully met; in addition, the automobile transportation conditions are indeed poor, and it is believed that under the guidance of governments at all levels, It will eventually improve. With the help of fire and water transportation, the transportation problem may be solved soon.

To sum up, in the face of the special situation of the current epidemic, the fertilizer market is trying to move in the normal direction, and the upstream and downstream markets are also moving forward in coordination with each other, "fighting the epidemic and maintaining spring ploughing" is louder and louder.