As we all know, the urea price has fallen for more than 20 days since the middle of March. During this period, some urea manufacturers tried to raise the price twice, but failed. With the passage of time, can the urea price rebound next? Or will the next price fall in a way similar to that in 2016?

The price of urea has fallen by a large margin, with a cumulative decline of 120-190 yuan / ton. The prices of some urea manufacturers are close to or lower than the lowest point before the Spring Festival, such as those of most manufacturers in Henan, most manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, and some urea manufacturers in Shanxi and Shaanxi. However, the prices of some urea manufacturers are still higher than the lowest point by more than 50 yuan / ton, such as those in Northeast, northwest and southwest of Hebei Province, Shandong Province The price of the manufacturer. Recently, all kinds of price reductions are caused by the temporary downfall of urea manufacturers in the process of sales game. If the buyer still has the remaining time to buy, if the manufacturer signs the list at a low price not enough, especially if the market continues to intentionally short, then it is possible to see how low the price is next.

Secondly, industrial and agricultural demand and export demand are lower than the same period of previous years. Crude oil prices plummeted, and the demand for exports and domestic trade was slightly poor. From January to February, China's urea export volume was 510000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 47.6%. The epidemic situation made the receiving volume of industrial plywood plants and power plants less than that of the same period of previous years. Although the overall receiving situation of compound fertilizer enterprises was good, the average operating rate of compound fertilizer plants once reached a high level of more than 75%, but now it is not a collection in late February / early March During the period of medium and compound production and resumption of work, the production of compound fertilizer in Spring Festival has come to an end recently, and the production of summer fertilizer has only started a little. In short, the demand in recent days has basically no pull on the price of urea.

Once again, supply has reached its highest level in the same period in the past three years, and manufacturers have to be short. Since the beginning of March, the daily output of urea has fluctuated at a high level between 160000 and 167000 tons, that is to say, the total output of urea in a whole month in March alone is up to 5 million tons. Considering that the daily output of urea in most of April should continue to be more than 160000 tons, China's urea production in the Indian standard on March 31 may be only 6-7 ships (one ship is transfer port urea), that is, 350000 tons at most. It is also the usual demand in spring and summer in the first ten days of April For the intermittent period, urea manufacturers will have to be short.

Finally, the market people are worried that the urea price trend will become a copy of 2016, that is, the price fluctuation drop. Recently, the urea price drop can not only be explained.

In a word, we don't need to panic too much. Even if the price of urea falls again and again, we can do business in a timely manner. We need to pay attention to that we can't rush into a large number of operations, especially we must ensure that it is spot. Next, the price is likely to rebound. The time may be the middle of April or later mentioned in the last article of zhongfeiwang car. The range is about 50-80 yuan. The reason is very simple. Before summer, the demand for Industry and agriculture will be less than that in spring. The amount of top dressing of agricultural dealers will also be less than that in spring. The export will continue to reduce the price. The urea production in China will continue to be high , of course, this kind of all shows that if the price can rebound, it's lucky. Don't expect too much for the range.