On April 8, the urea market showed signs of rebound, mainly reflected in the price increase of 10-20 yuan / ton for small particle urea in Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanxi and other regions. Just after the bidding results of India came out, the price of urea began to rebound. Is the Indian standard really the key point to pry up the price increase?

On March 30, India issued the bidding information, with a total bidding volume of 1.65 million tons. The preliminary information of the Indian bidding shows that the lowest bidding price is slightly lower than that of China's urea offshore at 245 $and the port price is about 1710 yuan. After deducting the port miscellaneous and the freight from the urea plant to the corresponding port, it is the ex factory price. India's bidding has been completed, with a total follow-up of about 800000 tons; however, the follow-up of West Coast is only 90000 tons, and the follow-up of East Coast is 710000 tons; among them, the supply of Chinese goods is about 340000 tons, excluding 50000 tons of Su Yantai re export goods, and the actual follow-up of China is 290000 tons. It includes 100000 tons of large particles, nearly 40000 tons of coal from Qinhuangdao, and large particles from a certain Valley and a ship; the actual follow-up of small particles is only 190000 tons, except for 120000 tons of small particles from Tianjin port, only 70000-80000 tons of small particles need to be shipped. The main supply direction is Inner Mongolia, Hebei Port, and the basic orders are basically completed. So no matter from the price or quantity point of view, it is not very significant for the domestic urea price boost, but only to alleviate the inventory pressure in some regions.

Secondly, the daily output of urea in China is higher. The daily output of domestic urea enterprises this week is still 160000 tons, only 5000 tons less than that of the week, and may not decline significantly before April 15. In addition, the demand for wheat topdressing is over in spring, and the demand for corn Topdressing and high nitrogen fertilizer will start in a large area in a month, so the short-term is not the time when urea demand is concentrated.

Once again, there are more negative, but some good. For urea market, although there are many negative factors in the near future, there are also good news. In the near future, the average operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is about 63%. Although the demand for fertilizer in spring is close to the end, some compound fertilizer enterprises start to produce summer fertilizer. The high nitrogen raw materials of summer fertilizer are mostly urea, so there is still some demand for urea in the short term. In addition, there will be some after Indian bidding If the source of goods is exported, it may cause a small rebound in local prices.

Generally speaking, the short-term price rebound of urea is also traceable, but after all, the negative factors are greater than the positive factors, and there is still a risk of falling back in the later period, and the bottom is not yet coming.