In the middle of April, with the end of the fertilizer market in spring and the beginning of the fertilizer market in summer, the compound fertilizer market entered a short "intermittent period", and the demand for downstream fertilizer stagnated slightly in the near future. This spring's compound fertilizer market continued to be tepid. In addition to the price rise in the second half, it did not meet expectations in terms of trading atmosphere or downstream sentiment. With the fluctuation of raw material market, the market pessimistic atmosphere has increased, and there are voices that the price of high nitrogen fertilizer in summer may develop in the next few weeks.

up to now, most of the tentative ex factory prices of 40% chlorine based high nitrogen series (such as 28-6-6 / 30-5-5) nationwide are about 1800-1920 yuan /. In late April, the summer fertilizer market will be fully clear. If the price of high nitrogen fertilizer is stable or rising in the next two weeks, the price support for the peak season stage will be greatly enhanced. In other words, after this half month, the price of compound fertilizer will not fall?

First of all, urea market is short-term positive. In the near future, the urea market is relatively stable. The main factory price of urea in Shandong and Lianghe areas is 1700-1720 yuan / ton. At present, the total daily output of domestic urea is about 160000 tons. The downstream compound fertilizer is entering the season of high nitrogen fertilizer production, and the demand for raw material urea is slightly increased compared with that in the early stage. The agricultural field top dressing market in the north area is about to start, and the demand for rice fertilizer in summer in the coastal areas of South China is just around the corner In the future, the demand for urea will be at a good level, but with the gradual increase of domestic supply and the obstruction of export market, it is still not optimistic for a long time.

As one of the important factors affecting the market of compound fertilizer, the term "demand" has become a hot topic. At present, the overall demand of high nitrogen fertilizer in this summer may be reduced. The first reason is that the price level of crops is low and the willingness of terminal planting is greatly reduced. At the same time of conversion of planting ideas, there are not a few people who have a new way, and the planting area will be reduced accordingly. The second reason is the epidemic situation After the alleviation, the operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has gradually increased. Now it is about 63%, which not only ensures the timely delivery of fertilizer in spring, but also ensures the effective supply of fertilizer in summer stock stage to a certain extent. The source of goods is relatively sufficient, and it is impossible to see the situation of tight goods and high prices. The terminal demand is insufficient, the upstream supply is excessive, and the long-term short is dominant.

Finally, the preferential policies were carefully introduced. Compared with the ex factory quotation, the preferential policies of compound fertilizer enterprises in the market in each season are also concerned. Even if the enterprise's propaganda quotation is no lower, there is no corresponding preferential policy for the transaction, which will also inhibit the downstream stock mood. At present, some enterprises have issued preferential policies for high nitrogen fertilizer to promote the transaction of new orders, but they are more cautious. The first reason is that the cost of raw materials may fluctuate in the later period, and the size of the preferential range is related to their profit space. Under the condition that the existing profit is constantly compressed, the level of the preferential range is very important. The second reason is that enterprises have strong competitive psychology, except that the factory price can promote downstream demand The corresponding preferential policies will also be crucial.
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