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As a big buyer in the international fertilizer market, India did not stop the pace of import even in April when the international epidemic broke out. At the beginning of the month, the urea printing mark was opened, and China won 350000 tons of the bid, of which 290000 tons were produced domestically. The domestic market moved with the wind, and the price of urine also went all the way. Although the current market price fell slightly, there was India in the market The news of another bidding at the end of April came, and everyone was looking forward to another rise in urea prices. On the contrary, in April, India conducted many bids, but the domestic price has not been boosted like urea, so what's the reason why the domestic price of diammonium is hard to rise?
By the end of April, the spring fertilizer market in most areas of northeast and Northwest China has basically ended, and only part of the retail stage is still in progress. After all, the demand in North China and East China is small, and the next large-scale fertilizer use should wait until the autumn market in September at the earliest. For most dealers in Northeast China, if they miss this spring's market, they can only process the diammonium at a low price or wait until next spring for sales, which makes the low market price in North China even worse.
Secondly, the scale of the printing mark is quite different. Compared with the total amount of about one million tons of urea per printing, several hundred thousand tons of medium and scalar. The total amount of diammonium in each bidding is only ten or two hundred thousand tons, and the average amount of diammonium in China is only tens of thousands of tons. Although there are objective factors that urea is used more than diammonium, to some extent, it also reflects that the competitiveness of diammonium export in China is lower than that of Morocco and other major competitors. Compared with the high-grade mineral resources in Morocco, China's phosphate mineral resources are relatively concentrated but of low grade. In addition, the high labor cost of water rising ships in recent years has gradually reduced the competitiveness of China's diammonium. In order to occupy the negotiation advantage in re import, India vigorously develops its domestic phosphorus and compound fertilizer capacity. Even if the outbreak of the epidemic hit in April, the capacity of diammonium will be basically restored in early May. At present, the CIF price of 64% of diammonium exported to India is only about $315 and the subsequent increase is weak.
In the end, there is a serious oversupply, and maintenance is delayed. The price of diammonium can't beat this huge capacity every time. At present, there is no maintenance plan for the diammonium plant in Hubei for a short time due to the shutdown of the epidemic in the previous stage. Only a few plants in southwest plan to carry out rotation maintenance in early May, and the overall operation is still at a high level. Although the tight delivery stage in spring has just passed and most of the diammonium plants still have low inventory, compared with the summer market with light demand, the current supply of diammonium is still high. Moreover, some factories in Hubei and Yunnan have put into production a set of diammonium plant with an annual output of 600000 tons, which makes the domestic situation worse.
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