There is a saying in the ancient poem that "the world will last forever and the hatred will last forever". The recent urea market is just like this. Since the May Day holiday, the price has continued to fall. The purchasing enthusiasm of the grass-roots market is not good. The big traders follow the use and purchase. They choose to wait and see carefully because of the fall of the price. And just when the urea fall can not be seen to the end, the price of individual urea enterprises in Shandong and Hebei has increased by 10-30 RMB / ton, urea will turn away from customers, stimulate the panic and enthusiasm of the downstream, and shake the dealers' tension.

 According to statistics, the price of mainstream urea factory in Hebei Province has risen to 1600-1650 yuan / ton. The price of mainstream urea factory in Shanxi Province is about 1530 yuan / ton, so there is room for negotiation. It remains to be seen whether the price of urea can rebound as a whole.

 first of all, the operating rate of urea enterprises is still at a high level, and the new production capacity or the biggest worry in the later stage of the industry. According to statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industry operation rate of urea enterprises is still as high as 57.65%, with a daily output of about 161800 tons. Such a high output is hard to digest in the off-season period. The current domestic and foreign economic environment is not good, coupled with the impact of the epidemic, although the price of raw coal and natural gas has been reduced, but for urea enterprises, they are still reluctant to take the initiative or significantly reduce the operation rate In particular, the current price level should still be above the cost line, so the enterprise will maintain a relatively high start-up; in addition, there are concerns about the production of new capacity. In this year, the new capacity of individual large factories in Hubei, Jiangxi, Shandong, Xinjiang and other places should be put into production in succession, and the total market feedback capacity will increase or be about 3-4 million tons. For the urea market, which is in excess, it should be filled again Pressure, long-term concern; however, the price of liquid ammonia is considerable, and some enterprises can selectively shift their production focus from urea to liquid ammonia, more or less to ease the delivery pressure of urea.

After a long time, small speculation is no exception. It more or less creates an atmosphere of preheating price rise. Small rise may shake the purchasing mentality of the downstream and stimulate the delivery progress of the downstream to a certain extent.

 The agriculture is in the off-season, and the grass-roots purchase is scattered and supplemented; the large-scale agricultural material merchants have sufficient goods preparation and distribution in the early stage, and now they use and purchase at the same time; the low operating rate of the downstream market of the industrial plywood factory leads to the large sales pressure of the board factory, so the enthusiasm of starting is not high; the starting of the compound fertilizer enterprises is at a slightly high level of 60%, and the cost support is lacking, the enthusiasm of terminal receiving is not high, and the price of nitrogen fertilizer is high The purchase of raw material fertilizer urea is limited due to the continuous decline or the introduction of preferential policies.

Finally, the stable operation of small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride market is the main factor, and there may be a small discussion space in some parts, which also has a certain impact on urea. To a certain extent, the reduction of the operating rate of ammonium chloride industry will support the firmness of its price, which is a little good for urea, of course not absolute.
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