After the Dragon Boat Festival, the prices of individual urea plants in Shandong, Lianghe and other places increased slightly. At this stage, the prices of mainstream urea plants in Shandong Province are 1560-1590 yuan (ton price, the same below). The prices of urea plants in Linyi region are 1620-1640 yuan, that of mainstream urea plants in Hebei Province is 1570-1630 yuan, that of mainstream urea plants in Henan Province is 1600-1630 yuan, and that in Shanxi and Shaanxi Province is the same The external price of the plant is rising slightly, and the overall price is still to be developed. The market is entering the stage of late summer and early autumn. At this time, the industry is surprised that the price increase of urea is not prohibited. However, if carefully considered, the price increase of urea is unlikely to last. It is expected to wait at least until the stage of large-scale purchase of compound fertilizer. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, why the price rise will not last long. On the one hand, because the new orders of the factory are mostly low-cost goods, there is no pressure on the factory's sales at this stage, so it can be sold at a high price. However, if the low-cost goods come to the station one by one, the downstream market demand will not only reduce, and the low-cost goods that have arrived at the station will also inhibit the price of their own factory. On the other hand, the market demand performance in the later stage is weak. At the end of summer and the beginning of autumn, high nitrogen fertilizer enters the final stage, and it is high in autumn The demand for phosphate fertilizer market has not yet started, but affected by the epidemic situation, the export market of industrial plate factories is blocked, and the demand is relatively poor compared with the same period of previous years. However, the demand for power plants is general, so it is difficult to have sustained demand support in the short term, so this price increase will not last too long.

Secondly, the export market performance is average. Although the bidding volume in India is relatively large, the lowest bid price of 237 US dollars on the east coast has dampened the enthusiasm of most urea enterprises for export. In addition to the enterprises along the port, most urea enterprises have completely reversed their exports, and it is understood that the number of exports as a source of Chinese goods is relatively small, and the supply pressure remains in the short term.

Finally, the urea operating rate will have a significant upward trend in the later period. According to the data monitoring of China fertilizer network, in the near future, the daily operation of urea in China is close to 150000 tons, and most enterprises will resume production after entering July. Although the production of some urea enterprises will be limited due to the high temperature in summer, according to the current production situation of enterprises, the daily supply of urea can still be maintained above 160000 tons.

According to the above situation, the slight increase of urea quotation at this stage is only a wavelet market. At this stage, the market demand is relatively general, and the potential supply pressure is still large. It is expected that the general trend of urea will be weakened in the near future. However, it is understood that the compound fertilizer enterprises are still waiting for the bottom reading purchase of urea. In other words, the real price increase of urea is when the compound fertilizer enterprises purchase On that day, it is expected that the urea price will continue to be explored slightly in the near future.