On the afternoon of June 24, a urea factory in Shanxi Province had an order waiting for more than 20000 tons, and the quotation was increased by 20 yuan / ton. The export price of a factory in Shaanxi Province had been reduced and decreased for several days, and the low-end export price had also been stabilized on June 24. On June 25, the quotation of some urea factories in Lianghe, Shandong Province had also been increased by 10-20 yuan / ton. So the question is, after the price of urea plummeted nearly 100 yuan, the price has risen slightly in these two days. Does this mean that the urea market in autumn is not as pessimistic as expected?

On the one hand, the increase only means that the urea manufacturers have a better waiting situation in a short period of time, which means that the total daily output of urea is only 150000 tons, which makes the receiving mentality of customers just in need acceptable, which means that the urea manufacturers do not want to make the price drop so fast, and it remains to be seen whether the real sustainable increase can be achieved. Since July to September is the autumn fertilizer production period for compound fertilizer enterprises, and the production time is a little long, and the autumn fertilizer is the world of high phosphorus and high potassium fertilizer, the delivery of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises will certainly not be urgent; in view of the poor global economic environment caused by the epidemic, the export of plywood has been affected, and the delivery of urea by plywood factories is not slow; in view of the northeast and West North topdressing has basically ended, and the pull of agricultural direct fertilization on urea price has been very small.

On the other hand, the increase is due to the sharp rise in international prices, India's bidding, and the total daily output of urea only 150000 tons. The international price has been increasing for two weeks, which has increased by more than 20 dollars. Although the price of Indian bidding is very low, the lowest price is 237.35 dollars on the east coast, which is nearly 5 dollars lower than the initial speculation. The price of China's port is only 1575 yuan, less port miscellaneous and freight, which is the ex factory price. However, large traders are ready to export in a proper amount, which will relieve the pressure of domestic urea manufacturers in a short time In terms of supply, since the beginning of June, it has reduced about 70-10000 tons every day, and the pressure of urea manufacturers is a little less than expected.
Compared with the same period of last year, the supply and demand are also reduced. The demand can only rely on the summer corn topdressing in the middle of July in Shandong, Jiangsu and Anhui. In view of the heavy rainfall in various regions, the urea gap of topdressing is really not large.

If we hope to export, it is also a dilemma. China India relations are tense. Even if we export a certain amount of urea this time, the pressure of urea manufacturers is not great for the time being, and the price can rise a little. But most of the time in July, we just need less, downstream buyers can wait, we can delay purchasing, we can use the export price to compare the domestic price, back 10000 steps, if we don't export, 150000 tons a day, Moreover, the daily output is likely to increase moderately. The accumulation of these goods in the factory, or the joint sale of the Federal Reserve to traders, is not conducive to the rise of urea during the autumn fertilizer production peak season from August to September.

Finally, it is also the most critical. Although the increase of urea in this time should not be large and the duration will not be too long, customers just need to weigh whether they can get the urea spot in time. After all, only when they get the spot, the original price or the price increase is sold out, is the really beneficial operation. In case of large-scale operation of urea, it is necessary to consider that the price increase lasts for more than half a month from receiving low-cost goods to delivering to the destination, which is really conducive to the price increase of manufacturers.