Urea futures rebounded and rose this week. As of Friday, the closing price of ur2009 contract was 1544 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.18%, an amplitude of 2.16%, and the highest price was 1559 yuan / ton. This week, the supply side remained low, and the regional market supply was not large, so the weakening of agricultural demand did not bring further decline in the market. There was a small recovery in the demand of downstream industries. With the release of a new round of printing marks, the overall demand has not yet declined in July. The low daily output for 5 weeks changed the trend of low price in off-season, and urea futures continued the slow recovery of last week. As of July 9, the daily output of urea was 142700 tons, an increase of 0700 tons on a month on month basis, with a slight recovery; the operating rate was 68.01, with a month on month increase of 0.38%. Among them, the output of Shanxi and Xinjiang rose by 14000 tons and 18000 tons respectively, while the daily output of Shandong and Hebei decreased by 14000 tons and 1500 tons due to maintenance, and the prices in this region will continue to be firm in the near future. The domestic spot market is mainly up this week. Demand rebounded and supply decreased. Urea inventory continued to bottom in the off-season, with 295000 tons of enterprise inventory, down 45000 tons on a month on month basis. Recently, a small number of enterprises participated in export marking, and the port inventory rebounded to 128500 tons after reaching the bottom. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises rebounded for two consecutive weeks, which led to the rise of inventory. This week's inventory was 542500 tons, increased by 25200 tons compared with last week, and the current inventory was lower than that of the same period last year. On the whole, the urea supply side is still at a low level this week, and the inventory pressure is not big and falling, and the demand recession is slowing down, especially the daily production and inventory are lower than the level in the same period of 2019. Next week, three Inner Mongolia coal enterprises are expected to resume production, and the daily output is expected to continue to rise. Until the end of July, the resumption of labor will enter the gap period. Next week, the urea market will focus on the recovery of daily urea production and the change of downstream agricultural demand.
Futures trends

Urea futures rebounded higher this week. This week, the growth rate of supply side is not large, and the recovery of industrial demand supports urea to continue to go up after stable 1530, with the highest reaching 1550. Domestic spot market this week to rise mainly, the main producing areas of Shandong, Henan and other places have 10-30 yuan up. With the rise of urea futures prices, urea resistance to rise gradually increased, intraday trading volume and positions have significantly declined, the market is becoming increasingly light. This week, the amplitude of ur2009 contract was 2.16%, with the lowest falling to 1526 yuan / ton, with a cumulative weekly increase of 1.18%.
Urea supply end

According to the data of Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, the average daily output of urea in China this week was 142700 tons, an increase of 0800 tons compared with last week's 141900 tons, and a decrease of 12000 tons compared with 154600 tons in the same period of last year. The operating rate was 68%, up 0.37% from 67.63% last week. Among them, the operating rate of coal enterprises was 65.92%, up 0.35% month on month compared with 65.57% last week, the operating rate of gas enterprises was 73.78%, increased by 0.45% month on month compared with 73.33% last week, the operating rate of small and medium particles was 67.47%, decreased by 0.21% month on month compared with 67.68% last week, the operating rate of large particles was 52.87%, and increased by 2.87% compared with 50.00% of last week.

This week, the price of steam coal is stable; the price of liquefied natural gas has increased by 50 yuan / ton. The price of the products increased by 10 yuan, and the enterprise's production profit increased by 10 yuan / ton.

The price of synthetic ammonia rose this week, increasing by 40 yuan / ton compared with last week. In Linyi area of Shandong Province, urea rose by 35 yuan / ton, and the price of synthetic ammonia urea decreased to 840 yuan / T, and decreased by 5 yuan / ton on a month on month basis. The domestic methanol market price rose by 35 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between spot methanol and urea in Shandong remained at - 55 yuan / ton. With the decline of urea spot price, the benefit of urea production is decreasing, and the methanol urea price difference may usher in the opportunity of negative to positive.
Urea demand side

In the aspect of compound fertilizer, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises this week was 40.75%, up 1.0% from last week, rising for two consecutive weeks. In the aspect of urea inventory, the daily output has not risen at a low level, and the downstream demand has risen periodically, and the inventory of urea enterprises has continued to decline. This week, enterprise inventory 295000 tons, 45000 tons less than last week. In the near future, there are two printing export opportunities, port inventory began to increase, 128500 tons this week, an increase of 19700 tons on a month on month basis. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises rebounded for two consecutive weeks, which led to the rise of inventory. This week's inventory was 542500 tons, increased by 25200 tons compared with last week, and the current inventory was lower than that of the same period last year.
Urea Export and international market

The international urea market was mainly up, with China's FOB price of small particles in bulk increased by US $3.5 to US $229.0/t; the price of Arabian Gulf rose by US $2.5 to US $230.0/t; and the Baltic Sea price was US $211.0/t. The market of large particles is mainly up. The FOB price of bulk large particles in China has increased by US $2 / T, Iran's price has increased by US $0.5/t, and the Arabian Gulf has increased by US $4.5/t, which has been continuously higher in recent years.