The rise and fall of urea market is no surprise to dealers. The current situation of urea market is weak, and the price is slightly increased by 10-20 yuan / ton. However, the goods in the basic market are weak. It is not uncommon for the urea market to be dominated by wait-and-see, price without market and upside down. Some urea enterprises in Shandong, Shanxi and Henan have increased by 10-20 yuan / ton continuously. For example, the factory reference price of some urea in Henan has risen slightly to 1600-1610 yuan / ton, and the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region has risen to about 1640-1670 yuan / ton. If urea prices continue to rise, it is good for ammonium chloride, but urea market is generally bearish, it is not necessarily an east wind for ammonium chloride. At present, the market of ammonium chloride is mainly stable, and the price continues to be firm. A small increase of 10 yuan / ton in some small areas is regarded as an unexpected surprise. Of course, the prices of individual enterprises in non main production areas have dropped by 10-20 yuan / ton.

First look at the supply and demand of urea. First, the current start-up of urea enterprises is about 54.31%, and the overall start-up will pick up again in the middle and late ten days, including the new production capacity projects to be put into production this year; second, the demand is weak, the agricultural off-season, the amount of local topdressing in the short term is limited, the small price rise will not last too long, the support of cleaning up the tail is limited, the industrial compound fertilizer enterprises start low, the production enthusiasm is not high, and the operating rate The recovery is slow, the purchase progress of raw material fertilizer is slow, and the quantity is not concentrated, the benefit of plywood factory is not good, its own inventory pressure is large, the willingness to start work is small, and the purchase amount of raw material urea is less. In this way, the bad side of urea market is still more than good, and the small-scale price rise saves the overall weak trend. It is expected that the local small rise will only have a short-term effect, and the mainstream is stable and bearish, and the price is still likely to go down.

Secondly, in the recovery of ammonium chloride enterprises, the supply of goods in the market will continue to increase. From the middle of June to the first ten days of July, some domestic ammonium chloride enterprises had centralized maintenance, and the overall operation fell to less than 60%, and the supply of goods was tight. However, the maintenance enterprises have been completed one after another. Now, except some ammonium chloride enterprises in Hangzhou, Hubei and Sichuan stop production or reduce production, the production load of most other enterprises has been normal. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industry operating rate of the United soda enterprises has been up to now It has recovered to about 69.8%, and there are still large factories ready to increase the load in the near future, and the enterprises that have stopped production are preparing to resume production, which means that the start-up of the combined soda enterprises will rise again, and the supply of goods in the market will increase again. Moreover, the price of soda ash is rising slightly, and the inventory of enterprises is slowly decreasing, so the production should keep a certain progress.

Thirdly, the new order of ammonium chloride lacks centralized and large amount of procurement. At present, the overall industry operating rate of Hefei enterprises is only about 49.93%, and the sales progress of finished fertilizer is slow. At the same time, the price of Wheat Fertilizer issued is low, the enterprise's enthusiasm for production is not high, and the purchase quantity of raw material fertilizer is limited. In addition, the production progress of extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises is also slow, and the raw material ammonium chloride is used and collected as soon as possible, especially the dry ammonium chloride is less than the wet ammonium, and the market is weaker than that of wet ammonium Some, the overall purchase is cautious, and the traders take the goods with caution. When the demand is not started, they are not willing to purchase and are waiting for the opportunity to copy the bottom price.

Finally, in a comprehensive view, although the urea market rose slightly in some parts, it still lacked the favorable support of turning point. The overall trend was bearish, and the price still had the risk of falling down. That was a negative effect on ammonium chloride to a certain extent. This "east wind" does not necessarily mean the east wind. However, with the support of its own cost and waiting to be issued, the market can continue to maintain a considerable price level, but the demand is weak It is expected that the mainstream of ammonium chloride market will be stable, and some large orders may be discussed.