In the short term, urea should not go up too much. It has a little relationship with India when it just falls.
In the five days since July 18, the factory quotation of urea manufacturers in Lianghe, Shanxi, Jiangsu and Anhui in Shandong Province has been reduced by 20-60 yuan / ton. The new round of urea price decline has just begun, which is in line with the urea price law in the middle and late July of previous years. However, what people didn't expect was that after just falling for a few days, the factory quotation of some urea manufacturers in Shandong and Shanxi Province was raised by 10-20 yuan / ton.

Falling price is the normal situation of the small off-season, and rising price after falling also has some reason.

First of all, the period of the weakest demand in summer in China is coming to an end. For example, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has been rising for nearly a month. Although the percentage of increase every week is very small, after all, the spot of compound fertilizer enterprises in spring and summer is almost exhausted. The policies and orders of fertilizer enterprises in autumn are issued earlier than in previous years, so it is inevitable to start operation and recover. Considering the local epidemic situation, it is necessary to produce ahead of time and distribute goods in advance According to the consensus of upstream and downstream, compound fertilizer enterprises have certain support for urea price; due to the arrival of a certain amount of urea from Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang in Linyi area of Shandong Province in the latter half of last week, Shandong urea enterprises have lowered the price in accordance with the situation, and it is not unreasonable to raise the quotation tentatively until a certain amount of orders are received.

For example, the start-up of plywood plant in summer is sluggish, especially the economic environment is poor. Now there are more rainfall and low temperature. Although the export of plywood recovers slowly, domestic demand is slightly better, and the plywood factory is about to start a new round of taking urea. For example, agricultural dealers, given that the price is more than 200% lower than that of the same period last year, and the price will rise as soon as it falls. If you don't take the goods, it's a bit unsafe. They may also be unable to help themselves.

Secondly, the export situation is fair, and the recent focus is on the printing of the bid. The final result of the seal on July 17 may not be ideal. The lowest bid price of US $240.75/t (CIF) on the east coast is only 3.4 USD / T higher than that of last month's bidding, and the bidding may end with only winning the bid of 119500 tons. The good news is that India's domestic sales are good, and India can A new procurement bidding can be held soon, and the shipping time may be extended to the middle of September. Chinese urea manufacturers have new expectations.

Although there are not many individual orders of large and small lots in China, the price is barely acceptable. It is obvious that the bidding price of India in June made the urea price in Inner Mongolia drop to around 1350-1360 yuan / ton, and then temporarily hit the bottom, and it has been stable for a long time. This time, the factory of Heshan East factory is slightly lower than 1500 yuan / ton, which is likely to make the factory quotation of Shandong and other places within Around 1500 yuan / ton, or in consideration of the next bid of India, the factory in Shandong Province is sold at a slightly higher level of 1500 yuan / ton.
Thirdly, the supply is slightly higher, but it is still not at the highest level. The daily output of urea is more than 165000 tons, which may be in the middle of August. The daily urea production in the first ten days of July is around 145000-150000 tons. Recently, it has just returned to 155000 tons. The impact of high supply may be reflected later. In the short term, the inventory pressure of urea manufacturers is not too big, and the price can naturally fall or rise.

Finally, the influx of capital into the fat market is more severe than expected. Today's urea futures price fluctuation is a small example. Due to the poor economic environment and the lack of good projects for investment at home and abroad, chemical fertilizer and grain are naturally the focus of attention of some capitalists, which makes the original variable urea price more irregular.
In a word, in the changeable urea market, if the price is over speculation, it is easy to plummet. If it is properly hyped, the price can still run at a higher level. Just in need customers should make timely moves, and non rigid customers should be treated rationally.