Since Wednesday, urea prices in Shandong, Lianghe, Shaanxi, Shanxi and other places have increased to varying degrees. At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1560-1610 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 1630-1650 yuan, that of Main outflow plant in Hebei Province is 1600-1640 yuan, that in Henan Province is 1580-1610 yuan, and that in Shanxi Province is 1580-1610 yuan On the same day, India's mmtc issued a new round of urea procurement bidding, and the bid was concluded on July 30 and the shipping date was to September 4. The additional clause of the new bidding is to offer only one price for the same coast (east coast or west coast). This clause prevents traders from giving up supply when making a counter-offer. Although domestic urea enterprises will increase the price of domestic urea every time India makes a bid, the increase of domestic urea price is not the same as usual. The main points are as follows:

First of all, the price increase is in the front, and the bidding in India is behind. India announced the bidding in the evening of this Wednesday. Before that, the urea prices of some large factories in Shandong Province had been raised in the morning. Some enterprises in Shanxi Province had suspended receiving orders and kept waiting. However, the domestic market demand at this stage was not so good. The agricultural topdressing market had just finished, but the industrial market was relatively average. The amount of compound fertilizer purchased in autumn was relatively small At the beginning of the year, the price of high-end products in the above-mentioned regions decreased by more than 40 yuan. However, the urea market had to react for a period of time before the price could be raised after each bid was announced in India.

Secondly, the price increase is related to the printing, but not all of them. Urea rose abruptly this time, and even some factories lowered it in the morning and rose at noon. Most of the reasons are that the urea futures market has been greatly pushed up and hot money has entered the futures market. However, the recovery of urea enterprises is slow. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, the daily output of urea is about 160000 tons, basically consistent with the same period last year. In addition, India's bidding is favorable Re injection, even if there is no too many transactions in the market recently, the price of urea has also increased to a certain extent.

Finally, the duration of this rally is uncertain. On the one hand, it is uncertain when the hot money will withdraw from the urea futures market, and the recent stock market strange actions have occurred frequently. If the Bulls leave the market by a large margin, the urea futures may rise as fast as they fall; on the other hand, whether the demand of the domestic market at this stage can support the announcement of the bidding price in India, although some enterprises have recently made some decisions The main port of concentration is to be exported, and it is estimated that the bidding price of urea this time will be higher than that of last time by US $10. However, according to the domestic supply and demand situation at the present stage, the domestic market is still oversupply, and there is also the possibility that the price will drop due to the high price.

To sum up, the price rise of urea in this period of time was beyond the expectation of some branches of the industry. However, the increase of urea enterprises this time seems to be relatively cautious. On the one hand, it is a chip to support the bidding game with India, on the other hand, it is also the reaction of the domestic downstream market.