Urea fell and fell back, and finally reached the bottom at the level of 40-50 yuan / ton higher than the lowest price in late July this year. Yesterday, the low-end price of urea in Linyi rose by 10-20 yuan / ton, while a urea enterprise in Shaanxi Province rose by about 10 yuan / ton. At the end of last week, Inner Mongolia stopped collecting money at a low price.
Urea fell slowly. Is this the rhythm of rising at any time?

The reason for the slowdown is simple, There is still a shortage of urea in the autumn market. The improved weather has brought about a slight recovery in the receiving of plywood factories. The pressure on loading and unloading at the port has been tense again since the end of August. The rumor that it will be opened in recent days has made the market people have a little confidence. Bangladesh's bid for 150000 tons of urea, large and small particles, and India's bid for 150000 tons of urea each, followed by rumors of new bidding in India, especially urea has fallen So many downstream buyers are worried less, and grassroots buyers are ready to move. First, it's time to start to study fresh storage; second, export is strong; third, worries about the possible reduction of urea supply in Xinjiang, Shanxi and southwest China in winter make grassroots buyers consider purchasing.

If urea prices want to rise, only Dongfeng is owed. For example, India has issued a new urea procurement bidding, for example, in Bangladesh urea procurement bidding, China's urea bid is in good condition, for example, port loading and unloading is greatly liberalized. It is possible to rise at any time, and it is a high probability event in mid September.
What we really need to pay attention to is that in case the problem of loading and unloading at the port is not solved, in case the urea cargo from the port is returned to China, and in case India does not issue any more bidding.

Specifically, there is not a big gap for urea in the autumn market, and the flood in some southern regions makes people's enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation in autumn a little weak, and it is only possible that the enthusiasm for fresh storage is very high due to the rise of grain prices in the later period. Considering the delivery and sales cycle of more than one to two weeks, the autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizer enterprises has entered the middle and late stage, and the receiving of urea will continue to slow down; The plywood industry is closely related to the export of furniture. The epidemic situation in foreign countries is serious. It is a foregone conclusion that the demand for furniture is less than that in previous years. Although the amount of urea received by plywood factories has increased slightly, it is not enough to drive up the price of urea.

If we look at the export, whether the port handling problem can be solved is a time bomb. The later the loading and unloading is resumed, the more unfavorable it will be to the rise of urea price in China. After all, it is a high probability event that the export will weaken after the end of October. The latest understanding is that the urea sales in India's domestic trade are slowing down, and the new bidding time of India is unknown. In the bidding of Bangladesh on the 15th, China will win the bid, and the estimated price is also It will be good, but the topic back to the beginning, China's port handling problem is still the most critical.
In short, the price of urea may rise at any time in the future, but it is very difficult, and the probability of a big rise is not large. First, there are many variables in the port. Second, the daily output of urea may reach 165000 tons soon.

The price of urea has fallen slowly. It is the best plan for the customers who just need to get the goods and hand them in time. It may be more appropriate for the non rigid demand customers to continue to wait for the export impact to be very weak before considering the lean storage.