After the recent bidding in India, stimulated by the good news of the cancellation of port loading restriction, the urea quotation showed a certain increase. However, the good news was that the news of loading restriction was issued again in some ports this week. The overall price of urea fell in response to the news, and the mainstream factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province fell to 1660-1680 yuan (ton price, the same below), and compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region made some suggestions for urea production The price of plain goods is 1670-1680 yuan, and the local daily supply is 21000 tons. The mainstream urea factory quotation in Hebei Province is 1700-1760 yuan, and the transaction space is 30-40 yuan. The mainstream urea factory quotation in Henan Province is 1650 yuan. The quotation is slightly down. The transaction reference is 1600-1620 yuan. The mainstream urea factory quotation in Shanxi Province is 1570 yuan, and the large granule is 1590-1600 yuan Although there are tens of thousands of tons of urea, it is difficult to raise the overall price of urea. The price of mainstream areas has a relatively obvious downward trend. Although the quotation of some regions has rebounded occasionally, the actual transaction volume and price are relatively poor. The speculation in Indian bidding is temporarily away. Recently, the industry has said that the urea price is still declining.

First of all, market demand. At present, although North China and other places are in the season of fertilizer sales, as the main battlefield of high phosphate fertilizer in autumn, the overall demand for urea is relatively small. In addition, even if the market demand still exists, there are still many urea supply sources in social links, and most of them are low-cost goods in the early stage (driven by the continuous printing mark of India, urea quotation rises too fast, and high-end price transactions are less) It is not very realistic to expect the agricultural market demand to rise in autumn; in the aspect of compound fertilizer, more than half of the fertilizer delivery in autumn has been delivered, and at this stage, raw material procurement is in a period of "green and yellow". On the other hand, due to the relatively low price of finished fertilizer this year, some enterprises still maintain a relatively wait-and-see attitude towards the purchase of raw material urine; the demand of industrial plate plants and power plants is also relatively high this year Poor, from the melamine price this year and last year's year-on-year close to the cut, it is not difficult to see the raw materials to maintain a certain degree of caution, demand support is relatively poor. Generally speaking, the actual demand for urea in the market is relatively general before the large-scale procurement of compound hypertrophy, which can not form a certain favorable pull.

Second, there is still the possibility of further expansion of supply. At present, the daily output of urea in China has risen to more than 160000 tons. According to the Convention of previous years, the limited supply of natural gas and environmental protection inspection in China will greatly inhibit the start-up of urea. However, it is learned from Xinjiang gas head factory that there is no production restriction plan this year. Due to the influence of the epidemic situation, the policy advocates the normal production of all industries, up to this stage this year According to the above situation, the supply of urea in the later stage will be higher than that in the same period last year.

To sum up, although the flow direction of domestic urea enterprises is acceptable at this stage, the pressure of urea supply of some enterprises is relatively large under the limitation of installation. It is expected that the price of urea may continue to decline, but the decline rate shall not be large in the short term.