More than half of the year's gold, nine and ten silver medals have been sold, and the country is full of the smell of harvest. The winter wheat planting area has also entered the stage of grass-roots goods preparation. The overall downstream arrival volume has reached more than 80%, and the replenishment demand will be released in the near future. Although the grass-roots demand lags slightly, but the overall rise in grain prices, grass-roots wheat fertilizer demand changes little, more and more people in the industry began to turn to the winter storage market.
As the end of the chemical fertilizer market every year, all manufacturers are actively preparing for the war. Different from previous years, this year's winter storage is facing a more complicated situation against the background of global outbreak. In terms of nitrogen fertilizer, the domestic urea demand is low, and the new printing mark has not been confirmed, so the market changes are complicated; for phosphate fertilizer, large factories in Northeast China have begun to reserve a large amount of Monoammonium, while diammonium is in short supply due to good demand at home and abroad; for potash fertilizer, under the leadership of Sinochem and Sinochem, the supply of port goods keeps pace with domestic factories, and the price is in a short term For compound fertilizer, several rounds of policies have been issued, and the low-end quotation has gradually disappeared.

First of all, the demand for winter storage is good. The outbreak of the epidemic at the beginning of the year delayed the return of migrant workers, some fertilizer factories stopped production, and the overall supply of fertilizer in spring was reduced. According to the author's understanding, most dealers in Northeast China had no stock in their hands. Some big traders said that the chemical fertilizers overstocked in previous years had also been sold, which is quite different from the situation that the northeast region faced with 1 million tons of surplus goods when winter storage was launched in 2019. The autumn harvest has been started in various regions, and grain prices in the three eastern provinces have increased significantly compared with last year. Taking corn as an example, the increase is 300-400 yuan (ton price, the same below). It can be predicted that farmers' enthusiasm for planting will be greatly improved, and winter fertilizer Reserve will not be a problem.

Secondly, the cost of raw materials has changed. Compared with the beginning of winter storage in 2019, the raw materials of diammonium and compound fertilizer are almost in a rising trend. Driven by the international market, the domestic sulfur price has risen to about 700 yuan, and due to better downstream demand, the subsequent price is likely to rise. Urea and potash fertilizer and other compound fertilizer raw materials also rose in recent years due to the international market and domestic giants. The raw material cost of diammonium and compound fertilizer is rising, which is also the main reason for the disappearance of low price compound fertilizer collection in Northeast China. Therefore, the change of raw material cost will directly affect the winter storage policy of diammonium and compound fertilizer manufacturers.
Finally, there are different opinions between the upstream and downstream. The previous article has said two advantages, let me talk about the difficulties faced by winter storage. With the development of China's logistics industry, the cycle of chemical fertilizer transportation has been greatly shortened. In recent years, the situation of sharp rise in winter storage and sharp drop in spring sales of fertilizer has occurred frequently. As a result, downstream dealers have less profit in winter storage, which makes everyone's enthusiasm for fertilizer preparation not high. Taking diammonium as an example, some manufacturers have high expectations for the winter storage market because of the better export and domestic sales in autumn. The first wave of quotation was basically the same as the retail price last year, and few downstream responders were found.

To sum up, the demand for winter storage in 2020 is large, and the cost of raw materials is rising in the short term. Due to the good export of some varieties, the domestic supply pressure is small, but with the fierce market competition and other adverse factors, the overall trend of winter storage will gradually become clear in October.