When will urea rise? Could it be after the National Day holiday? Or do you really need to wait for India to announce a new procurement bid?
First of all, in recent years, any price increase of urea is closely related to export. First, the export rises, and then the export rises, and then the domestic price falls behind. In August 2020, China's urea export volume was 200500 tons, and that of last month was 181200 tons, an increase of 10.7% month on month. In the same period of 2019, the export volume was 657800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 69.5%. Seeing this data, we can immediately understand the pressure of urea loading and unloading in China's ports from August to September; nevertheless, the number of urea exports in September is still highly expected.

Take Shandong as an example. Since the end of July, Shandong has risen 220 yuan / ton, then decreased by 150 yuan / ton, and then rose again. The export volume in September affects the amount of urea social inventory in China after November. Of course, if the export volume is large, India's new bidding may be delayed to a certain extent.
It is worth mentioning that on the evening of September 29, the Ministry of fertilizer of India announced that the restrictions on the payment of all subsidies for fertilizers would be lifted from October to December 2020, thus promoting the sale and import of fertilizers. There is usually a ceiling on spending each month, but that has been removed. This will help the urea import process and the fertilizer industry as a whole over the next three months. In view of the above, the Ministry of finance will have additional flexibility in the current budget and will not require any special approval in the next three months.
This means that India is likely to issue a new urea procurement tender in October.

Secondly, domestic trade is relatively flat, and the pull on urea price is not obvious. The tender for urea storage in the front did not bring big waves. Due to the foreign epidemic situation, the receiving of plywood plants in the back will not be very bright. What can be expected is the winter storage fertilizer production of compound fertilizer enterprises. The compound fertilizer / mixed fertilizer enterprises in Northeast China and other places may start to take urea after the National Day holiday. But this year, the corn lodging in Northeast China is serious, and the harvest time is prolonged, so they can take urea In view of the flood ahead and the expectation of grain price rising, the urea consumption of winter wheat topdressing may increase moderately.

Third, supply recovery is a high probability event, only the meteorological department warned that this year may be a cold winter relationship, natural gas supply or shortage. From September 25 to October 1, the production of urea enterprises in Jincheng, Shanxi will be limited by 20%. As time goes on, these urea enterprises will resume production. One urea enterprise in Inner Mongolia and one in Northeast China will resume production in the next two days. One of the three urea enterprises that stopped production in Xinjiang has resumed production today, and the other two will resume production in mid and late October. The urea enterprises stopped in Yunnan will also resume production before the end of October There is a new urea production capacity in Inner Mongolia, which may produce urea. Considering that environmental protection has made great achievements in recent years, it is still unknown whether Shanxi Jincheng urea enterprise will limit its production this winter. Therefore, the urea supply will rise under the approximate rate. The daily urea production may be more than 165000 tons, and the pressure of rising urine price remains.

In short, after the eight days of the National Day Mid Autumn Festival holiday, there are many advantages, such as the new printing mark, the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting, the plywood factory purchasing, and of course, the power plant is purchasing as usual; the bad news is that the international urea price continues to fall, and the loading and unloading speed of China's ports may not be much faster than that during the previous printing period. It is understood that the first two or three ships can not load the urea to India before October 5 The goods have been sold at low prices in other parts of our country.
In short, as long as India issues a new urea procurement tender, it may be during the weekend of this week, that is, during the long holiday, after the long holiday, or in combination with the phosphate compound fertilizer meeting on October 18, China's urea price will rise moderately. At present, the speculated price of the new mark is about 255 US dollars / ton offshore of Chinese urea, which is sent to Yantai port and other ports by Chinese urea manufacturers The price is about 1684 yuan / ton. Considering the different freight charges, the combined factory price is still considerable. What's more, in case the price is higher than that! However, at present, the output of urea in Shandong, Henan and other places is 1600-1630 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is higher, and there may be some room for reduction before the price rises.