After returning from the national day, the price of urea kept rising continuously. Under the influence of many factors, such as Indian bidding, time limit for urea enterprises in Jincheng area of Shanxi Province, industrial demand increment, adjustment of Southwest natural gas, Jincheng orange +, etc., although it is not easy to attack and defend urea supply and demand, the short-term urea supply pressure has been improved to some extent The inventory pressure is relatively low, and even some enterprises are in zero inventory state, urea prices continue to rise. As of the end of this week, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1750-1790 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi area is 1800 yuan, that of Hebei Province is 1770-1780 yuan, that of Henan Province is 1760-1780 yuan, and that of Shanxi Province is 1760-1780 yuan The main factory quotation of urea in Liaoning Province is 1680-1740 yuan, large granule is 1750 yuan, and that of Heilongjiang Province is 1770 yuan. Due to the demand of compound fertilizer market around Liaoning market, the local urea factory quotation has also risen to about 1790 yuan. The urea price rise has lasted for a short time, and the weekly increase of urea in some regions has reached about 100 yuan. However, the urea growth has slowed down recently As for some mainstream regions, the price also showed some signs of steady decline. The main reasons are as follows:

First, demand performance is relatively modest. Both the orders to be issued for export and the demand of downstream industrial market are lower than the previous level. The latest shipping date of India's bidding is in the middle of this month. Due to the final number of domestic transactions and the rapid rise of domestic prices, in fact, the amount of urea that can be exported is far less than the one million tons transaction rumored in the early market, and the backflow of port goods also occupies a part of the country However, through one month's procurement in the downstream, although it is not enough reserve fertilizer for winter storage, it can still supply enough consumption in a short period of time, and it is too early to prepare fertilizer for agricultural storage in winter. The latest news has not been released from the next round of Indian bidding, and the purchasing power of India is still to be observed. At this stage, the follow-up demand is doubtful, and the price may decline.

Secondly, the price is relatively high. Due to the recent change of supply and demand in the market, the price of urea has risen too fast, but the stock of relatively high price sources in the downstream market is not too much. Although traders recognize that the recent rise of urea is like a rainbow, the actual price of downward sales is inversely linked to the current new products from the factory. If there are more low-cost sources in the early stage, the traders still have a certain profit, Due to the gradual increase of urea, this part of the traders gradually reduce their purchasing enthusiasm due to their early inventory. On the other hand, the international price is lower than the domestic price at this stage. According to the price currently implemented in China, the FOB price is no less than 270 US dollars. Even if India opens bid again, the domestic bottom price may be lower Urea market price is likely to decline.

To sum up, the recent rise in urea prices has been hindered. However, due to the existence of pending orders, some enterprises have stopped production and limited production, so the overall supply pressure is not too great. Although there are signs of price decline, in order to stabilize the market and support the remaining orders to be issued in the near future, it is expected that the decline rate of urea will not be too fast.