The price of urea in 2020 can be said to be a relatively satisfactory ending. There are more than expected rises in spring and summer, and higher rises in autumn and winter. With a higher price in 2021, the problem now is that some dealers have not started to take goods for the spring of 2021. Can't help asking, can urea rise in spring? I think it will rise mainly because of the following three points:
First, the performance of rigid demand in spring should be good. It is said that the demand in spring accounts for 60-70% of the total demand in a year, and the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises, power plants and distributors should perform well in spring. The price of urea is high in the last quarter of 2020, and the amount of urea already reserved by industrial customers should be small, and the amount of urea should be replenished in spring. It is worth mentioning that under the encouragement and support of various policies, the cultivation area of northern crops should be increased It will increase moderately. The areas in the south that can grow two or even three cropping rice are also expected to recover. Some dealers have already taken the goods, and some dealers have not yet started to take urea. Just after demand, the price of urea is expected to rise in spring.

Second, the exit will not delay. After the last printing, the international urea price did not cool down, but fluctuated at most. Although the new printing will last until February or even the end of February, once there is clear news, China's urea market can still take the opportunity to make a little hype. In addition, from January to November 2020, China's total export volume of urea is 4.87 million tons, which is higher than that of 4.35 million tons in the same period of 2019. The growth rate is lower than expected, but it is better than nothing. Under the epidemic situation, all countries attach importance to grain and fertilizer import. Presumably, the situation of China's Urea Export in 2021 will be better than that in 2020. Looking back to the spring of 2020, the price rise of urea continued for nearly two months, but the export performance was not good at that time It is expected that the export in the spring of 2021 will give an appropriate boost to the price increase of urea.

Third, the supply is increasing, but we should also pay attention to whether the transportation will cause short-term supply tension, especially the arrival of urea in Northeast and southwest. After all, there are few urea manufacturers in these places. Whether the gas head urea enterprises can resume production in late January is also the key. Once the urea supply in a certain area can not keep up with the demand, the urea price will be as short as at the end of 2020 Temporary rise.

If the price of urea in the industry rises slightly in the last ten days of 2016, for example, the price of urea in some areas will rise slightly in the last ten days of 2016. If the price of urea in the industry rises again, the price of urea in the first ten days of 2016 will rise again If the price of chemical fertilizer is too high in spring, the grass-roots level may reduce the consumption. If it is too cold in spring, the sales may be very concentrated. Even if the price of urea rises, it will not bring too much profit to the manufacturers.
In a word, the off-season in autumn and winter of 2020 is not weak, and the spring of 2021 is probably the peak season. Let's observe, it's easy to realize the rise, but it's difficult to keep the rise. We should prevent the situation of small rise and big fall, that is, less rise and more fall.