In 2020, under the epidemic situation, all walks of life can write a variety of bitterness, but the good side is that most fertilizer plants are of fair scale and high market resistance. As grain, the heat of grain is high, and the price of fertilizer is higher than that of the same period last year. This year, some changes have taken place in the supply pattern of urea: some enterprises that had been shut down for a long time in the early stage have successively put in In the process of production, some of the old units have been withdrawn from the market; the impact of environmental protection is becoming more and more normalized. Jincheng District of Shanxi Province has been in the state of limited production and maintenance since the middle of October. According to the government documents, it is estimated that the output of 2.5 million tons of urea may be affected. However, due to the tight supply of natural gas, the gas head enterprises have been in the phase of shutdown since the end of November However, the price trend of urea at the end of the year remains relatively high, so it is expected that the supply will intensify after the start of 2021, and the price may decline.
Price of raw materials

The international situation has intensified this year. The IEA coal report for 2020 shows that the recovery of global coal demand is mainly driven by the strong demand of China, India and Southeast Asia. At the same time, the rise of natural gas prices and the growth of electricity demand in Europe and the United States will help ease the structural decline of coal demand, which will be the first increase in coal demand in the past decade. It is reported that with the recent shutdown of small coal mines and the gradual concentration of production capacity, the overall supply is relatively stable. It is expected that the overall supply will be relatively stable next year, and the overall price is relatively stable. In terms of natural gas, the domestic supply is still relatively short, but slightly better than the market in previous years. It is expected that China's natural gas market supply will further increase in 2021.
Environmental protection

This year, environmental protection will affect urea itself and downstream market, the most intuitive embodiment of which is the long-term shutdown in Jincheng area of Shanxi Province. From the efficiency of environmental protection promulgation, it appears to be more and more frequent. It involves not only the shutdown and production restriction of downstream chemical plants, but also the overall transportation during the environmental warning period. The impact of environmental protection on urea is gradually deepening, and it is expected that with the development of environmental protection With the improvement of environmental protection standards, it will accelerate the elimination of some high energy consumption urea enterprises.
supply

The supply of urea will increase in 2020. However, affected by the epidemic situation, some new plants of some enterprises have not been put into production this year. The details are as follows: Shandong Ruixing has added a new plant with an annual output of 1 million tons, which is planned to be put into production in January so far; xinlianxin plans to put into production a new plant with an annual output of 800000 tons in Jiujiang; Hubei sanning plans to put into production a new plant with an annual output of 800000 tons in the first quarter of 2021 Jiangsu shuangduo plans to put into production in September 2021, with an annual design capacity of 1.04 million tons. Wulan group plans to resume production of 1.2 million tons from June to July 2021, and the overall annual capacity of urea may increase by 5 million tons, but it still depends on the specific production time of each enterprise.
Demand:

China's real estate industry will enter a stable and weak decline trend. Some local governments encourage the abandonment of price reduction sales, and the real estate will basically maintain a stable and weak downward trend in 2021. The demand of plywood factory will weaken with the weakening of real estate. It is expected that the overall industrial demand will remain weak in 2021. The pattern of market supply and demand has changed. Under the background of higher grain prices, there is an expectation that the price of chemical fertilizer will rise. Since 2020, due to the tight global agricultural supply, the price of agricultural products will rise, and the demand will recover in the second half of the year. The prices of agricultural products represented by corn and wheat will rise rapidly. It is estimated that the output and consumption of 2020-2021 seed season are 1.145 billion tons and 1.157 billion tons respectively. There is a gap between supply and demand in the world for four consecutive years, and the inventory consumption ratio has dropped to 25.7% for three consecutive years. Corn is expected to continue to be in the upward channel in the future. The supply and demand structure of rice continues to be tight, and the balance of production and demand once dropped to 980000 tons, which is expected to maintain a moderate upward trend in the future.
There is still a demand gap in the international market. Affected by the epidemic, India's dependence on imported chemical fertilizer has increased. China's urea is still the best choice in terms of price, transportation distance and supply. This can be seen from the continuous bidding this year,

Through comprehensive analysis, the urea market performance in many places this year is not very good, but it is by no means poor. The number of exports has increased, and the domestic supply pressure has decreased. However, after entering 2021, the market supply has further intensified, and the overall market competition has increased. Although there is potential demand in the autumn market, the market competition pressure is relatively large. It is expected that urea will rebound significantly after entering January It is expected that the urea market will improve at the end of the first quarter. After entering the second quarter and before the end of market demand in autumn, the urea price will run at a high level, and then there will be a wave of decline. After entering the second half of the year, the urea price will fluctuate in a narrow range in summer and autumn, but it still needs to pay attention to the start-up trend.