After the new year's day, the winter storage market of chemical fertilizer entered the closing stage before the Spring Festival, the market purchase and sale situation was flat, and the stalemate atmosphere was still dominant. What is different from previous years is that this year's fertilizer winter storage market fluctuates frequently under the influence of various force majeure factors, and the uncertainty of the future market also increases greatly. Even near the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of the lower reaches to continue to replenish their positions is not high, especially for the compound fertilizer side. What's more unexpected is that the price of urea continues to rise recently, which makes the high nitrogen fertilizer market in a dilemma.

As we all know, the demand of high nitrogen fertilizer in Central Plains, Jiangsu and Anhui provinces is mainly 35% (30-0-5) and 40% (28-6-6) chlorine based compound fertilizer. At the beginning of winter storage, the collection price of most enterprises is relatively low. With the continuous rise of urea market, the price of high nitrogen fertilizer has increased significantly, which has exceeded 200 yuan / ton, completely exceeding the downstream acceptance expectation. Recently, the mainstream price of urea in China has been rising mainly. The mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong and Lianghe areas is 1820-1860 yuan / ton. The factory is waiting for sufficient supply for the time being. There is a possibility that the low-end quotation will rise further in the future. So, whether the price of high nitrogen fertilizer will go up again or not has become the focus of attention.

Why rise again? First, the cost of raw materials is high. According to the latest compound fertilizer factory receiving price, the cost of 28-6-6 compound fertilizer pure raw material is about 1580 yuan / ton, plus other expenses, the total cost is more than 1800 yuan / ton. In today's market, there is little left for the enterprise profit to be compressed. If the urea market continues to rise, the enterprise has to adjust the corresponding price or policy in order not to appear the phenomenon of upside down; second, to promote the development of the enterprise by rising Steady. Although the price of winter storage is rising, there is not much change in the enthusiasm of the downstream to take the goods, and the current quotation of the enterprise has not aroused the downstream purchasing interest. According to the psychology of buying up but not buying down, if we can seize the tail of the urea market and increase the price of high nitrogen fertilizer, it is likely to trigger a wave of purchasing activities; third, the epidemic is fighting back and the downstream is eager to take the goods. Affected by the domestic outbreak, the transportation situation in some areas has been very bad recently, and some of them are basically paralyzed. In order to prevent this situation, the enthusiasm of many grass-roots units to prepare goods has been improved.

Why not? First, there are ups and downs, especially the urea market, ups and downs. Generally speaking, the demand for urea is in a relatively off-season at the present stage, and it will rise instead of falling in the off-season. To a certain extent, it foreshadows the price reduction in the later stage. Once the support is insufficient, the high price of urea may fall immediately, and the high nitrogen compound fertilizer market will also be affected by bad news. Second, the impact of low price source in the early stage, and at the beginning of the start of winter storage, the raw material market has not yet risen to such a level, and the enterprise collection price is low Since the beginning of the grass-roots market recently, low-cost goods have dominated the market, which will inhibit the release of downstream demand. Third, the market stagnated at the end of the year, and the downstream demand stopped near the Spring Festival. Although the price of compound fertilizer has changed, there is no market for it. Some dealers in some areas said that there is no need to continue to replenish their positions before the year According to the plan, there are still some goods that can be sold. Even if the price rises sharply or the goods are tight after the year, the inventory can be sold for a period of time.

To sum up, the current fertilizer market is full of too much uncertainty. The sudden rise of urea price in the near future is really surprising. High nitrogen compound fertilizer has regained good support, but the price rise is daunting. The short-term market may be stable.