At the end of the year, the new coronavirus came again, and many cities were closed. It was close to the Spring Festival, which disrupted not only the plans of some people returning home during the Spring Festival, but also the overall procurement plan of the fertilizer market. The overall quotation of urea in some areas increased by 100 yuan (ton price, the same below) this week. Now the mainstream factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is 1950-1960 yuan, and the compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region are paying more attention to urea The price of the product is 1990 yuan, and the price of the high-end products will rise to 2020 yuan. The price of the mainstream urea in Hebei is 1940-1980 yuan, the price of the mainstream urea in Henan is 1920-1960 yuan, the price of the mainstream urea in Shanxi is 1850 yuan, and the price of the large particles is 1880-1890 yuan. Although the demand of the agricultural market is relatively general, the demand of the industrial market has increased recently, but the increment of the compound fertilizer is small, and the plywood factory has opened According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, the average operation rate in December was slightly higher than 110000 tons, and the overall operation of urea recovered to more than 120000 tons in January. Recently, the gas head urea enterprises also plan to resume production after the middle of January, and the supply pressure will gradually increase in the later stage, but at the present stage, the supply pressure will increase The main reasons for the rising price of urea are as follows:

First of all, the outbreak of the epidemic has intensified the psychology of hoarding goods in the market. The recent outbreak of covid-19 outbreak has been a rapid response to the outbreak in the past year. Shijiazhuang, Xingtai and other places quickly entered the stage of the closure of the city, and concentrated isolation for the villages in serious areas. Then the epidemic situation in Heilongjiang also showed a punctuate outbreak. The regions also had different degrees of response, because of the inaccuracy of the late epidemic. Qualitatively, the number of inquiry orders in the downstream market has increased significantly compared with the previous period, and the increase of inquiry orders has also led to the increase of transaction quantity. For example, the ex factory price of small particle auto transport transaction in Shanxi Province has risen to about 1850 yuan recently. According to the calculation of time, the winter storage fertilizer production of compound fertilizer has entered the peak season. Due to the rapid demand, the supply of urea has been eliminated As well as the orders from fixed customers, the source of goods available for sale is relatively small, the overall price rising atmosphere is relatively strong, the shipping is tense, and the quotation of enterprises is continuously rising.

Secondly, the support of market demand is strong. If the pure panic psychology is not enough to support the current price of urea, it is reported that the recent demand of Jiangsu agricultural market is fair, and the compound fertilizer knows how to store industrial raw materials in winter. It is reported that the receiving price of Linyi area last Friday was only 1840 yuan, but it has risen to 1970 yuan at the present stage, with a weekly increase of more than 100 yuan, although some downstream markets are backward The period is not very optimistic, but the demand time of agricultural market is fixed. If some enterprises do not start work now, it may lead to some problems in the later sales. On the other hand, the task of national reserve is also in the continuous reserve, and the increase of demand leads to the price rising.

To sum up, although the overall supply of urea increased in the later period, and a large number of agricultural market demand is too early, due to the influence of recent special factors, the price of urea continued to rise, and the price is still likely to rise in the short term.