Recently, the price of urea has been rising strongly. This week, the overall price of urea in some areas has increased by 100 yuan (ton price, the same below). At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 1960-2000 yuan, the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is more than 2000 yuan, the main ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 1940-1980 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan is 1920-1960 yuan, and the price of urea in Shanxi is 200 yuan Although the price of urea is soaring at present, the market in Jiangsu and Anhui Province has relatively high purchasing enthusiasm, and the competition for price is not so strong at this stage. The main concern of the downstream at this stage is the spot and when to arrive. The quotation of some large factories in Shandong Province has risen to about 2000 yuan. According to the current situation, the price of urea is relatively high Recently, there is still the possibility that the price of urea will continue to rise, so how long can the price rise of urea last? The main variables are as follows:

First of all, when will the gas head enterprises resume production. Due to the relatively good overall performance of the market in the near future, although the gas head enterprises are still in the process of shutdown, most of them have relatively high enthusiasm to resume production. It is reported that some gas head enterprises in Northwest China plan to resume production by the end of January. According to the current plan, after January 20, some domestic gas head enterprises will resume production. If the natural gas supply is sufficient, the domestic urea production capacity will increase after early February It will increase by more than 10000 tons, and the new units of Jiujiang xinlianxin, Hubei sanning and Shandong Ruixing all plan to produce new products before the Spring Festival. According to the above output forecast, after February, the overall daily supply of urea will reach more than 140000 tons, and the potential supply in the later period will be large. According to the above situation, if the current market demand remains unchanged, it is expected that in January Before and after the end of the year, the market supply will increase significantly, and the price rise will be restrained to a certain extent.

Second, the duration of market demand. In the near future, excluding the hard demand of the industry, the area with stronger demand is Jiangsu, and the local market is mostly for fertilizer preparation and procurement under the outbreak of epidemic panic. According to the current situation of the market, although the epidemic situation is sporadic at this stage, the overall diffusion degree is far lower than that of last year. Because the epidemic situation has been effectively controlled, the price rise of urea is not obvious Even some factories say that although the price rises rapidly, the proportion of high price transactions is not too high. Even if the price is likely to rise again in the later period, the increase in the price and the number of transactions in the later period should not increase too much.

To sum up, according to the prediction of the industry market at the present stage, the price of urea may continue to rise in the near future, but the space to rise again before the end of January should not exceed 100 yuan, and the short-term commercial reserves of chemical fertilizer are relatively high, and the agricultural demand market is released ahead of time. Although driven by the hard industrial demand, it is not recommended that the agricultural market rashly purchase high price urea in advance and enter the market There will be a significant increase in supply in February, when urea may fluctuate.