The price rise of urea seems reasonable, but it is only reasonable that the domestic start-up is low, the enterprises have sufficient orders in advance, the international price is rising, and the printing standard is making trouble again. However, the price rise is unexpected. The price rise is too large, and the price rise lasts for a long time. In the view of urea production enterprises, the supply and demand of urea is tight, which is not limited to the off-season or the peak season.

The price of urea in China has been raised in a hurry, and the price of urea in various places has risen by comparison. There are many orders waiting to be issued by enterprises, and some enterprises have evenstopped collecting money. At present, the mainstream price of urea in Hebei Province is about 2130 yuan / ton, some gas head urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia have just resumed production, and the mainstream price of small particles is about 1920-1980 yuan / ton. The gas head urea enterprises in Sichuan and Chongqing have gradually recovered, and the price of urea rises to about 2100 yuan / ton. The receiving price of urea in Linyi compound fertilizer plant in Shandong province rises to about 2120-2140 yuan / ton, even for high price urea It's more resistant, but it's also being used. Near the Spring Festival holiday, domestic urea enterprises pay more attention to the downstream construction, logistics and transportation, and the progress of printing standards in the second half of the month.

First of all, urea enterprises started to pick up, but there are sufficient orders to be issued, the supply is still tight, and the price may still be high. Some gas head urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Sichuan and Chongqing have resumed production one after another, and some urea plants in Northeast China have been opened; and a urea enterprise in Anhui Province, which has stopped inspection for a long time, is ready to resume production; in addition, with the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, the liquid ammonia enterprises are under pressure to take delivery of goods. In the near future, they mainly reduce inventory at low prices, and after the local market price has dropped by about 100-400 yuan / ton, some enterprises are preparing for heavy production in the later stage If the heart is slightly inclined to urea, the output of urea should be increased. In addition, this year, we should also consider the progress of new production capacity of urea, such as the dynamic of some urea enterprises in Jiangxi, Anhui and Hubei. If a new urea plant in Jiangxi is not unexpected, it will be put into operation before the Spring Festival, and Anhui and Hubei enterprises may be put into operation in the first half of the year. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall industry operation rate of urea enterprises is about 48.9%, and the daily output is about 137300 tons. In the later stage, the total production capacity and output show an increasing trend.

Secondly, the demand for urea seems to be booming on the surface, while the actual transaction resistance under high prices is growing. As the high price of urea continues to rise, even if a few of them fall slightly, this does not affect the overall upward trend, which poses a problem for large agricultural materials suppliers. First, according to the feedback of some large agricultural materials suppliers, the social reserve inventory of urea is limited, but the high price leads to the increase of purchasing worry. Second, in the off-season of terminal agricultural demand, the high price of chemical fertilizer increases the worry about the spring market However, during the Spring Festival, the start-up of some plywood factories and small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises should be reduced to a certain extent, and the purchase of urea is overdrawn in advance. Moreover, it is difficult for the compound fertilizer itself to rise in price, which increases the cost and the purchase enthusiasm is not high In addition, the highly concerned printing label has caused certain fluctuations in the market, and with the rise of international urea prices, it has certain support for the domestic urea market, but there are still variables, which may lead to a situation of less thunder and heavy rain.

Once again, the price of ammonium chloride may also affect urea to a certain extent. Although the domestic price of ammonium chloride has been increased, the overall increase is small, especially compared with urea, the cost price of pure nitrogen element is lower, which may be more favored by compound fertilizer enterprises and can replace part of urea.

Finally, on the whole, whether it is the international market or the domestic market, even if it is suspected that the market is overdrawn in advance, there are plenty of favorable factors in the urea market. It is expected that the price will be high in the near future, and even some enterprises will say that they have to go up. However, with the recovery of urea enterprises in the later stage, the supply of market goods will increase, which will inevitably lead to the risk of high price and difficult sale.