Recently, driven by the export market, urea has shown signs of rising as a whole. By the first week of February, the FOB price of China's small particle urea has risen to 355-365 US dollars. Although the domestic market demand is not ideal, especially before the Spring Festival, the demand of industry and agriculture has weakened, the industry still pays more attention to urea and is mostly waiting for India's bidding, so as to reflect whether the high price of urea can really be realized In fact, most of the industry is bullish on the urea market after the Spring Festival.

As for monoammonium, although the industry did not expect as much as urea, most of them thought that the overall market of ammonium phosphate should not be bad. As of the first week, the FOB price of 64% diammonium in China and CIF price of diammonium in India rose to US $465-485 (ton price, the same below) and US $425-460 respectively, with a large increase. In addition, the CIF price of diammonium in India was far lower than that of domestic diammonium, indicating the recent export situation of China's diammonium At present, the FOB price of 55% granular monoammonium in China and CIF price of 63% granular monoammonium in Brazil have risen to US $400-420 and US $525-560 respectively, with a weekly increase of tens of US dollars.

It can be seen from the price that the export market of Monoammonium is relatively good. Recently, the demand for ammonium phosphate in South America is relatively large, especially in Brazil, the main exporter of Monoammonium in China. At present, the CIF price of 63% granular monoammonium in Brazil has risen to US $525-560. In the past month, the increase has reached about US $110. At present, the offshore guidance price of 60% granular monoammonium in China has also risen to 420-440 US dollars, which is more than 500 yuan higher than the ex factory price of 60% domestic powdered ammonium. In addition to the conversion cost of powdered ammonium and granular monoammonium, the price difference has to reach more than 400 yuan. In this way, it is easy to understand the increase of export inquiry by traders. It is understood that the export orders of domestic export enterprises are up to May . On the one hand, it reflects the large export demand, on the other hand, it can be seen that the domestic granular ammonium production capacity is not large. It is roughly understood that up to 200000-250000 tons of Monoammonium has been in the hands of traders and is ready to be gradually transported to Brazil in the first quarter. This has not yet calculated the quantity of Monoammonium being produced in the plant.

This situation will certainly bring some benefits to the domestic price of Monoammonium. Some industries believe that there is no possibility of price reduction of Monoammonium after the Spring Festival. They also believe that the surge of Monoammonium export may reduce the production of 55% powdered monoammonium and industrial monoammonium of domestic enterprises, which will increase the supply pressure, and the supply may be tight after the festival. However, in the long run, some industries believe that the export market of Monoammonium has improved this time, and the sharp rise in price should not make the industrial structure of Monoammonium adjust in essence. The export boom may be just like the tail of a rabbit. According to the rough statistics of China fertilizer network, the physical output of Monoammonium will be around 12.5 million tons in 2020, while the overall export volume of Monoammonium will be 2.5302 million tons in 2020, which can be seen Most of the demand for monoammonium is in China, and the recent export is a bright spot, but it will not completely change the overall pattern of Monoammonium. With the gradual recovery of the epidemic situation in various countries, the international market of ammonium phosphate should gradually return to normal, and monoammonium will still return to the home market.

To sum up, in the short term, the export of Monoammonium is a bright spot, and there is a large amount of domestic waiting to be issued. In addition, the market of raw materials such as sulfur is better. It is expected that monoammonium will continue to rise after the Spring Festival. However, in the long run, the market of Monoammonium still needs to focus on the domestic supply and demand of Monoammonium and upstream raw materials.