Since the beginning of March when the domestic urea price opened the downward channel, the price downward trend has intensified. So far, the receiving price of urea of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi District of Shandong Province is 2060-2070 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is more than 100 yuan lower than the peak value in February. At present, the supply of domestic urea market is increasing day by day, the bidding for urea procurement in India is far away, the good support is weak, and the short-term urea price is still under downward pressure. At the beginning of the spring market, the negative impact of the weak urea market is self-evident. Taking compound fertilizer as an example, especially high nitrogen fertilizer products, the vast majority of market purchases and sales are stagnant recently.

Since March, the prices of most compound fertilizer enterprises have obviously increased. In view of the increasing pressure on raw material cost, it is also a helpless move for compound fertilizer enterprises to comprehensively increase the prices. However, the acceptance of downstream enterprises is low, and the psychology of resisting high prices is increasingly strong. In addition, the price of urea has recently dropped, and the high nitrogen fertilizer market in some regions is in a stalemate state. The price of raw materials is loose, and the possibility of subsequent price fall of compound fertilizer is increasing. Is the market really tense?

First of all, low-cost goods in the downstream account for a large proportion. With the opening of the spring market, the downstream goods preparation activities have been carried out one after another. Taking compound fertilizer as an example, most of the current circulating goods are low-cost goods in the early stage, which accounts for a large proportion, leading to low prices in the primary wholesale market and serious local inverted phenomenon. The low price source has not been digested yet, and the price of new orders has risen to a high level. Most dealers hold a wait-and-see attitude. Even if there is room for replenishment, it is difficult to release it in a short time. Some dealers plan to flexibly prepare the goods according to the downstream replenishment willingness after the inventory is sold out. After all, the price of compound fertilizer is on the high side. In order to reduce the inventory pressure at the end of the market, enterprises may reduce the price for promotion.

Secondly, the support of raw material cost is still relatively strong. The price of urea is weak. For the compound fertilizer market, the high nitrogen fertilizer market is greatly affected. The balanced fertilizer market is relatively stable as a whole. Moreover, the market support of phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer still exists. At present, the monoammonium market remains high, the enterprise quotation is firm, and some of the orders have been controlled. In the early stage of the main development, however, the sulfur price continues to decline, the market wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the short-term monoammonium market is stable. In the potash fertilizer market, the price of border trade and port potassium chloride has increased. The new price of chlorine of the domestic salt lake company increased by 50 yuan in March, and urea unilaterally reduced price, resulting in one-off price The market of ammonium and potassium fertilizer still plays a supporting role in the compound fertilizer market.

Finally, different seasons make different market progress. After the end of Winter Wheat Fertilizer Demand in Central Plains, the local compound fertilizer market has entered the off-season, which is far away from the corn fertilizer season in summer. In addition, the price of urea has fallen, most of the downstream will not reserve high nitrogen corn fertilizer immediately. Next, the plan will be made according to the trend of urea market. However, the spring Market in Northeast China has basically started, and the downstream purchasing and marketing activities are still in full swing Gradually warming up. Although dealers are not willing to replenish their positions, according to CNFC, up to now, the progress of some grassroots distribution is about 50% - 60%, and there is still a certain demand gap in the future. With the advance of the season, there may be a wave of replenishment climax in the future.

To sum up, if the raw material cost changes unilaterally, there is no obvious fluctuation in the compound fertilizer market for the time being. If the spring market demand can speed up the release, the short-term compound fertilizer price will be mainly stable.