Recently, the price of urea has been rising again. Although the price in some regions has been repeated occasionally, the price is running at a high level in many places. For example, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2130-2170 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2200 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2130-2140 yuan, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan is 2130-2150 yuan, The mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2070-2105 yuan, and that of big grain is 2050-2090 yuan. The low-end ex factory price of urea in Xinjiang is also slightly increased, while the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Heilongjiang is also increased to about 2130 yuan. Recently, the start of urea operation is relatively low, and the demand of agricultural market in Southwest China has begun to develop, while the topdressing market in Northeast and Northwest China has also begun to start gradually, The supply of large particles is relatively tight, the number of orders in the downstream market is increasing, and the recent inventory pressure of factories is relatively low, and the demand of high nitrogen fertilizer market is replenishing one after another. The domestic urea price is rising again before the next bidding in India. However, at this stage, the urea price may have reached the top, and some regional prices have shown a certain steady decline, In the later period, we can't rule out the possibility that the price will continue to decline. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, the bidding for urea in India may be delayed for a long time. Despite rumors this week that India urea or next week's tendering began, but in April 20th, India COVID-19 broke out again, and the number of new infections continued to refresh the historical record. However, at the present stage, the government of India did not have effective measures to prevent and control the epidemic. It is expected that the possibility of bidding in India next week is relatively low, so that without additional demand injection, the enterprise's own inventory will increase significantly.

Second, domestic supply will increase. The urea enterprises that have stopped production recently have resumed production one after another. Although some urea enterprises are still temporarily in the process of shutdown, the overall daily output at this stage has recovered to more than 160000 tons, and after May, some new units will also resume production. Considering that India's bidding for China's 609000 tons of medium standard units last time, and the next bidding is far away, The demand of port market is relatively soft in the short term, and the inventory pressure of enterprises will gradually increase, which is not conducive to the increase of urea price in the later period.

Finally, the domestic market demand will be reduced. After entering May 10, the market demand for high nitrogen fertilizer in various regions has basically ended, and the agricultural market demand in Southwest China will come to an end after the middle of May. Even though the topdressing market in some regions starts from June to July, on the one hand, the recent procurement has been advanced, and on the other hand, there is still a period of time for the grass-roots to really use fertilizer, so the demand support is not so sufficient.

To sum up, in the near future, most factories have few orders waiting to be issued in the early stage, and the recent performance of new orders is relatively poor. However, the bidding in India is still unclear, and the possibility of factories' price support waiting for the release of the demand for Indian bidding is relatively low. It is expected that in the short term, the quotation of some enterprises relying on the support of recent orders waiting to be issued will still run at a high level, or even the possibility of price increase will not be ruled out, However, in order to ensure the waiting for delivery during the festival and the gradual increase of inventory, the transaction price may decline.