With the passage of time, the May Day holiday is drawing to a close, and there is little urea festival to go. During the festival, only part of the urea price in southern China has been slightly increased, while the urea price in other areas has remained stable. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong has risen to 2130-2140 yuan (ton price, the same below). The receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2160 yuan, The mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei increased to 2130-2150 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan increased to 2130 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi increased to 2070-2085 yuan, the big grain price increased to 2050-2090 yuan, and the high-end ex factory price of urea in Sichuan increased to more than 2200 yuan. The Indian standard is also eager to try, and the market demand for high nitrogen fertilizer still exists, The top dressing market is also gradually starting up, and the market is developing towards a good side. However, after discussing with the industry, it is found that most of the industry are not particularly optimistic about the urea market after May Day, and the main reasons are as follows:
First, domestic urea supply is on the high side. Before the festival, the start-up of urea in the whole country returned to more than 160000 tons, and some urea enterprises were still in the state of temporary shutdown. After entering may, the temperature in various places gradually increased, and the environment further improved. Most of the above factors were conducive to the resumption of production of urea enterprises, while other enterprises that converted to liquid ammonia also had the possibility of continuing to produce urea, The newly added units with an annual output of 1 million tons of individual large plants in Shandong Province also indicated that they would produce products in May. Considering the above factors, the average daily output of domestic urea in May will remain above 160000 tons, or even reach 170000 tons, which is a big bad news for the urea market and inhibits the price rise in the later stage of the urea market.

Secondly, the potential demand of domestic market is relatively general. Recently, driven by the high demand for nitrogen fertilizer and the topdressing market in Northeast and Northwest China, the price of large and small urea granules in many places has risen to a certain extent. Even before May Day, the price of large urea granules in Heilongjiang Province is difficult to obtain and the price rises rapidly. However, after May, the production of high nitrogen fertilizer basically ends around May 10, and the market of large urea granules basically ends, Even if there is a demand for topdressing in Northeast and Northwest China, the procurement is mostly sporadic. That is to say, after the middle and late May, there is only a small amount of urea demand in the south. The overall demand is relatively small, and the price rise is relatively difficult.

Finally, there are some negative factors in India's bidding. India started bidding again at the end of April, and the shipping date is in late June. Although the market says that the bidding quantity may reach more than 1 million tons, the shipping date is too long. Assuming that China wins the bid of 1 million tons, the average flow of ports is only 500000 tons per month. Moreover, the recent epidemic situation in India is relatively serious, there are still some variables in the Indian market, and on the other hand, the price, According to the current factory price of domestic mainstream export regions, it is still higher than the average price of the international market. If China wants to take a share in this printing, the current price of urea is still likely to continue to decline.

To sum up, after May Day, most of the orders to be issued by domestic urea enterprises have basically been consumed. Although the price of urea in some regions is still likely to rise, considering the supply and demand of urea market, the price of urea in main export regions is still likely to decline.