In recent years, the overall price of urea market has been rising fiercely, even in some regions, the weekly price has increased by 200 yuan (ton price, the same below). At present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2190-2260 yuan, that of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2290 yuan, that of urea in Hebei is 2220-2240 yuan, and that of urea in Henan is 2200-2260 yuan, The mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi Province is 2230 yuan, and that of large particles is 2230-2250 yuan. Some people in the industry joked that the price of coal has been increased according to the hour, the price of urea has been increased according to the number of days, and the daily updated price of urea has caused a certain panic in the downstream market and increased the purchasing enthusiasm. Most of the industry believe that the price of urea will continue to rise in the future, However, another branch believes that the price of urea may decline in the long run, mainly due to the following reasons:
First of all, domestic urea supply is relatively high. Although some of the plants are temporarily shut down for maintenance in the near future, the daily physical output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and most of the plants shut down still have plans to resume production in the near future. In addition, the current market is good, and there are many orders missing. If there is no temporary failure of the plant, it is expected that the daily physical output of urea will not decline significantly, so the daily physical output of urea will remain above 160000 tons, In addition, new products will be produced in the new units of rising around the end of this month, when the supply pressure will gradually increase. Even if the price of urea rises recently due to coal, most urea enterprises still have considerable profits according to the current price, but the market demand support is not enough. When the demand is cold, the price of urea may decline.

Secondly, factories are waiting for more low price, high-end price trading volume is general. Recently, most factories have indicated that their inventory pressure is low, and the number of orders to be issued is acceptable. However, we learned from market feedback that most of the orders to be issued are low-cost sources in the early stage. Recently, due to the rapid rise of urea price, the number of transactions at high-end price is relatively small. With the gradual arrival of low-cost sources, low-cost sources may inhibit the transactions at high-end price, Recently, some factories have also said that there is no actual transaction for individual high-end price. Even if the overall price of urea is likely to rise in the future, it is expected that the overall increase will not be too large.

Finally, the market demand is relatively general. Recently, there is still demand in Northeast, northwest and southwest agricultural markets, and the demand lasts for the longest time until the end of June. The demand of high nitrogen fertilizer market is over, and the demand for urea in domestic market is not too high. Although it is rumored that there will be bidding in Indian market after late May, there is great uncertainty in Indian urea bidding due to the epidemic, At present, there is still a big gap between the international price and domestic price, and the port urea has begun to flow back, so the attraction of printing label to domestic urea is relatively limited.

To sum up, the recent high price of urea does not even rule out the possibility that the price of urea will continue to rise in the near future. However, the recent rise of urea is relatively weak, and there are variables in the later market. It is not recommended to rashly purchase high-end sources to store up.