Since the beginning of this week, urea has been constantly surprised, and the ex factory and wholesale prices have been rising all over the world. However, the overall price has exceeded expectations, and the pace of rising has not yet stopped. Even if the downstream price of urea is in conflict, there seems to be nothing they can do; The new urea import tender issued by RCF of India will be opened on May 25 and the shipping date will be on or before June 30. After the announcement of the Indian bid, the domestic urea price rebounded, while the production enterprises started at a high level, but the supply of goods was still tight. There were many different opinions about the reasons for the price increase, including the rise of raw material coal price, the high price background of bulk commodities, the local procurement of domestic agriculture, the boost of Indian bidding, and so on, That is the protection of liquid ammonia.

At the beginning of this month, the production enterprises focused on liquid ammonia. With the rebound of urea price, the production enterprises shifted back to urea, and the price of liquid ammonia began to rebound sharply. The two reached a mutually beneficial situation. At present, the prices of domestic urea and liquid ammonia are both rising. For example, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shanxi is about 2270-2290 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of liquid ammonia is about 3300-3400 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Jiangsu is about 2380-2410 yuan / ton, and the mainstream acceptance ex factory reference price of liquid ammonia is about 3840-3900 yuan / ton, and the price of liquid ammonia in Anhui, Shandong and other places will continue to rise; It seems that the rising price trend of urea and liquid ammonia has not been stopped, and the reasons are diverse.

First of all, the start-up of urea enterprises is high. According to the statistics of China fertilizer network, up to now, the overall operation rate of urea enterprises is about 57.11%, and the daily output is about 160300 tons. Moreover, some large overhaul plants will resume production one after another. Because of the high price and good profit of urea, the production focus of enterprises is inclined to urea in the near future. Secondly, demand is one of the important factors in the rebound of urea price. The demand of industrial plywood factories and power plants is stable and considerable, and the regional market of agriculture is obvious. For example, southwest and Northwest China are in the stage of agricultural topdressing, and the lower reaches are more active in taking goods. Fertilizer use in some markets in East China will also be started, so the price of urea is likely to remain at a high level, Or there is the motivation to continue to pull up. Once again, another factor of urea price increase is the suspicion of hyping the label printing. However, judging from the current high price of domestic urea, there is still a certain price gap with the international price. Whether there is an export advantage or not remains to be seen. Generally speaking, even if the price of urea is supported by agricultural demand and the cost is increased due to the rising price of raw materials and coal, the price is high and the market is abnormal after all. The enthusiasm of grassroots to pay is likely to be hit, and it is inevitable that there will be rational policy regulation in the later stage.

However, the rise of urea price supports the liquid ammonia Market, which makes the liquid ammonia have a way to go back; In addition, the supply of liquid ammonia market is tight. First, some enterprises turn their production focus back to urea; second, a few liquid ammonia enterprises have planned or temporary maintenance, resulting in a reduction in the supply of surrounding goods. In addition, the start-up situation of current phosphorus and compound fertilizer enterprises is fair, the demand for liquid ammonia is stable, and the resistance of downstream ammonia enterprises to high price liquid ammonia is not high, so there is still room for the price of liquid ammonia to rise in the near future.

Finally, on the whole, even if the start-up of urea is high, the local agricultural demand will be supported. In addition, with the boost or hype of printing label, the local price may be slightly pushed up; The start-up of liquid ammonia is relatively low, and there is a demand for some downstream products with better enthusiasm for receiving goods, and the price has room to rise. But after all, the prices of the two have increased a lot, which will inevitably be affected by the policy control in the later stage, or the factory will stop because of the poor transaction.