Since last Wednesday, the domestic urea price has been tentatively raised. After a week of fermentation, with the support of Jiangsu market demand, the urea price in many places has entered the upward channel. Now the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2740-2770 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi district is 2810-2820 yuan, and the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Hebei is 2780 yuan, The mainstream urea factory quotation in Henan is 2730-2750 yuan, the mainstream urea factory quotation in Shanxi is 2660-2675 yuan, the large particle factory quotation is 2670 yuan, the mainstream urea factory quotation in Anhui is 2770-2820 yuan, the mainstream urea factory quotation in Jiangsu is 2840 yuan, and some high-end factory quotations in Mengxi have reached 2650 yuan, but what people do not know is the downstream market waiting for bottom reading recently, Seeing that the market demand in autumn is approaching and its raw material inventory is temporarily low, it is worrying. But what is more urgent is that last night, India RCF company once again issued urea import bidding, which was opened on July 22 and the latest shipping date was August 31. Some industries said that the market had been tortured by high-priced fertilizers for a long time this year. Now they came to India to stir up the situation, and the urea price may rise again, However, from the market feedback, this urea bidding may not have such a great influence, mainly for the following reasons.

First, the attitude of relevant departments is more important. After the last Indian urea bidding, the domestic urea price has refreshed the historical high-end price in recent decades. At that time, due to the high price of coal, the mentality of urea price increase was relatively firm. However, since a series of measures taken by relevant departments, although there was Chinese supply in the last Indian urea bidding, it was far lower than expected, and only ended up with an export of up to 100000 tons, In the later stage, the rising trend of urea was slowed down through measures such as limiting loading and restraining coal price. Since July 1, the rising trend of urea has slowed down, and the price has decreased by a small 200 yuan. Recently, when India opened the bid again, the primary consideration is not the supply and demand of the domestic market, but whether the relevant departments can release it for export.

Secondly, the domestic market demand is temporarily in a relatively low season. Even if there is a certain demand for fertilizer in Jiangsu and other markets recently, on the one hand, the demand is still relatively small compared with the national supply. On the other hand, the market demand lasts for the longest time and only lasts until late this month. In the later stage, the market demand performance is poor. Even if the domestic urea enterprises are supported by the export market and the price increases, the domestic downstream has resisted the high price, Even if the price rises, it will be difficult to refresh the previous high.

Finally, the market supply will increase. Enterprises that have stopped production for a long time in the early stage will resume production in the near future, and it is rumored that Ruixing's newly invested production capacity will also produce new products within this month. According to the planned volume of each factory, the domestic daily physical output of urea will reach about 170000 tons at the end of July and early August. At that time, the supply pressure will increase, and the rise of urea price may be restrained to some extent.
To sum up, the recent domestic urea price rise test was successful, but the autumn is a high phosphorus fertilizer market, and the demand for urea is relatively limited. At this stage, the attitude of relevant departments is not clear, and the impact of India's urea bidding on the domestic market may be limited.