Since the last bidding in India, the overall domestic urea price has started to rise again, and the transaction price of small urea particles in Shandong Province has risen to nearly 2800 yuan (ton price, the same below), once again breaking the historical high of the previous period. Urea once again entered a state of "out of control", and there was a rumor that urea export tariff was temporarily imposed. Some industries expect to regulate the domestic urea supply through customs duties, so as to "cure" the excessively high urea price. However, as of the beginning of July, the relevant red head documents have not yet been issued. However, under a series of regulation and control, the price of urea has declined to a certain extent recently: at present, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province is 2740 yuan, and the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region is 2820-2830 yuan; The main price of urea in Hebei is 2740 yuan; The main price of urea in Henan is 2800 yuan; The main factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2770-2790 yuan, and that of large granule is 2760-2770 yuan. The main measures and factors are as follows:

First, coal will enter the downward channel in July. According to Xinhua News Agency on June 27, a person in charge of the economic operation regulation Bureau of the national development and Reform Commission said in an interview that with the growth of hydropower and solar power generation in summer, as well as the increase of coal production and imports, the contradiction between supply and demand of coal will tend to ease, and the coal price is expected to enter a downward channel in July, with a significant drop in price. First, the output will increase further: the coal mines stopped in the main coal producing areas will gradually resume production, which is expected to return to the production level in early June in early July, and some high-quality advanced production capacity with increasing production potential will be gradually released in the second half of the year. The second is the further increase of imports: according to the situation of imported coal orders, July and August will be the peak period of imported coal arrival, and the coal supply will be further effectively supplemented. The third is the increase of hydropower and solar power generation: after entering the flood season, the inflow of water increases significantly, and the output of hydropower increases significantly. At the same time, solar power generation also grows rapidly in summer, which will largely replace thermal power generation and effectively reduce the demand for coal for thermal power. The decline of coal price directly reduces the production cost of most domestic urea enterprises, because the impact of inflation can be appropriately reduced, and then the urea price will have the capital to fall.

Secondly, the relevant departments interviewed some fertilizer enterprises and conducted in-depth investigation at the grassroots level. It is learned from urea market that recently some urea enterprises have been interviewed by relevant departments, with the theme of reducing exports, ensuring domestic supply and stabilizing prices. Therefore, even if the overall quantity, price and shipping schedule of urea in India were attractive to China last time, the expected export quantity in the industry was only between 100000-150000 tons, and the export heat has declined; On the other hand, on June 28, the national development and Reform Commission and the General Administration of market supervision went to Henan and Hebei provinces to carry out special research to understand the operation of the fertilizer futures and spot market. The research group went to Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, some urea production and circulation enterprises and agricultural materials sales stores to learn about the supply and demand of urea market, spot and futures prices, enterprise operation, product export, etc., analyze and judge the market situation and price trend in the later period, and listen to the opinions and suggestions on how to ensure the supply and price stability of agricultural materials such as fertilizer. In the next step, the General Administration of market supervision and the national development and Reform Commission, together with relevant departments, will continue to pay close attention to the market dynamics of agricultural means such as urea, strengthen market supervision, resolutely crack down on hoarding, bidding up prices, fabricating and spreading price information, and maintain the order and price stability of agricultural means such as fertilizer. Under the guidance of the policy, the domestic urea price fell slightly.

Thirdly, the limitation of transportation in mainstream areas and the reduction of market demand. Since June 29, trucks have been banned from entering the urea plant in Yuncheng area of Shanxi Province. As time goes on, Shandong, Henan and other places have also begun to restrict it. The deadline is mostly in the evening of July 1. Although the duration is relatively short, the overall inventory pressure still exists for the urea plant with limited storage capacity. During the period of limited loading, the overall inventory pressure is still high, In order to ensure the low inventory and late shipment volume, the transaction price of some urea plants also declined to varying degrees, which disrupted the rhythm of the overall price increase of urea; On the other hand, the top dressing peak in the northeast and northwest markets has ended, and only part of the replenishment demand remains in the later stage. Although there is demand in the southern market, the overall quantity is relatively small. With the end of the market demand in Xinjiang, part of the supply has been out of Xinjiang, which will also have a certain inhibitory effect on the price rise of urea in some regions.

To sum up, although the temporary imposition of urea tariff is a drastic increase in the price of urea, the joint and several effects brought about by the rash imposition of tariff are relatively large. The way to slow down the rising price trend of urea by reducing the price of raw materials and limiting transportation can not only reduce the price of urea, but also minimize the impact, It is a better way.