Recently, India announced the total amount of bids in the bidding: the bidding received bids from 12 suppliers, totaling 1.651 million tons of urea, including 711500 tons on the east coast, 894600 tons on the west coast, and 45000 tons on FOB. The demand for urea, which should have been in the off-season, increases again, and the price also shows some signs of rising: the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2790 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2820-2830 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2810 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2720-2760 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi is 2610 yuan and that of large particles is 2570-2580 yuan. Different from the lowest price of last year in July and August last year, the urea market price in the off-season this year does not show a downward trend. On the contrary, it continues to rise. The main reasons are as follows, which are different from last year:

First, the background is different. Affected by inflation this year, most commodity prices have increased to varying degrees, while the price of coal upstream of urea has remained high for nearly half a year, and the international urea price has been rising continuously since December last year. Affected by this, under this background, the domestic urea price has continued to rise, This is also the main reason for the high operation of urea price since this year.

Secondly, India's bidding force. According to statistics, India purchased 9 million tons of urea last year. So far this year, excluding the unfinished Indian standard, its total procurement in India is 2.7 million tons, slightly lower than that in the same period last year; In addition, India's demand for chemical fertilizer has remained at a high level this year, and the potential demand in the later stage is large. In recent months, India has frequently purchased urea, and the international supply has decreased due to the impact of the epidemic. Under this background, the international urea price has increased or decreased. According to the latest international guidance price, it is equivalent to China's FOB price of more than 3000 yuan, Domestic urea naturally has the possibility of being pulled up.
Finally, lower construction starts meet the demand and release in advance. Recently, urea enterprises in many places in China have stopped production and limited production to varying degrees. Due to the long start-up in the early stage, some equipment has certain potential safety hazards. However, the domestic demand in July and August is relatively general. The routine maintenance of enterprises and the relocation of some factories have reduced the daily physical output of domestic urea to less than 150000 tons, and the domestic market demand has begun to increase recently, Due to the long procurement cycle in some downstream markets and the continuous increase in the fertilizer market this year, the panic psychology in the downstream has increased and the quantity of goods sought has increased, resulting in the situation that the urea market is not light in the off-season at present; In addition to the increase in inventory caused by poor transportation in Shanxi, the inventory of most urea plants is temporarily low, and the price is rising to a certain extent.

To sum up, although some fertilizer enterprises have been interviewed by relevant departments recently, in terms of the current state of urea, even in the off-season, the overall start-up of domestic urea remains relatively low, the domestic and foreign market demand remains, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises is low. There should be no risk of falling urea price in the short term, and it is even possible to continue to explore, In addition, some factories may suspend quotation after continuous rise for a period of time, but on the contrary, the current urea cost is high, and hasty storage will increase certain risks.