At the end of July, the rising trend of urea finally slowed down, and the price of a large urea factory gradually decreased for three consecutive days. On July 30, the receiving price of Linyi was reduced by 20 yuan / ton. At the end of last week, the voice of Zhongfei net's car moving with the sales just fell, the printing standard was put into effect, the international urea price fell, the domestic industry was relatively off-season, there was no demand for agriculture, but the daily output of urea was less than 140000 tons in recent days, and the coal price was high, More optimistic about exports, can it really fall down next? It's sure to fall, but let's discuss the decline and falling time:

First of all, the probability is that every time India bids, China's urea price rises before India announces the bidding, and the high level fluctuates or falls after the bid opening. The Indian standard has been settled. On the evening of the 28th, India confirmed that it won the bid of 1.199 million tons, and China's urea supply may be 755000 tons. The quantity is so large that the shipping date is August 31. It can be said that the urea gathering volume should be large before August 15 or 20. However, according to the practice, by the time of confirming the medium quantity, the urea price should have risen almost. Under the premise of the domestic off-season, The ex factory price of China's urea manufacturers can only be close to the export price (not 50-100 yuan / ton higher than the export price in previous years), and there may be policy changes or administrative intervention in the export, and the supply may not reach 755000 tons (up to now, the existing port stock is about half of this quantity). Anyway, the export does bring great support to China's urea price in July, This support will be appropriately weakened in August. After all, international prices have fallen at the end of July, with a decline of US $5-10 / ton this week. At the same time, Europe, Turkey and Southeast Asia have also entered the off-season.

Secondly, the off-season and peak season are high probability events, that is, not light in July and not prosperous in August. It was supposed to be the lightest July of the year, but this year's urea price rose more and fell less, and the price rise time was far longer than the price fall time. At the end of July, the domestic urea price was already high and the highest in history, not to mention how much it fell in August. According to a rough view, the possibility that urea turned to rise on August 1 of the previous two years is almost zero.

Thirdly, with the daily output of urea less than 140000 tons, the price may fluctuate temporarily, but such a low output is short. Then from early August to August 10, some urea manufacturers overhauled / stopped production due to rainstorm in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shandong and Heilongjiang will resume production. The two new units in Shandong and Anhui may produce products sometime in August. In addition, At the beginning of August, the local demand in Xinjiang will soon end, and Xinjiang urea is about to leave Xinjiang. Only some factories have maintenance plans in August. The urea price may drop slightly in the second week of August and beyond. Pay attention to the progress of urea port gathering in export.

In short, urea is indeed going to drop. Conservatively, it is more likely to reduce the price. Under the support of export, the decline is not large in the short term, and the specific decline needs to be observed; It is suggested that industrial buyers sit on the bench and withdraw when they properly purchase some urea, waiting for the possible delayed off-season, and agricultural buyers do not have to take too many goods. The urea price in the autumn market may be high, but the winter storage price is unknown due to the global epidemic, inflation, large capital flow intervention, policy intervention and other factors.