Recently, due to the adjustment of coal price, the urea quotation in mainstream regions has recorded the highest weekly decline in recent years. The high-end decline of urea quotation in some regions this time is about 700 yuan (ton price, the same below). After falling to a slightly higher cost line, the receiving of large compound fertilizer factories after low-cost procurement is suspended this week. In the early stage, traders with high-priced goods take the opportunity to ship quickly, and the amount of replenishment is limited, The overall market lacks confidence in the bullish outlook. Urea stops falling and rebounds this week, traders follow up relatively slowly, and the overall quotation rise is limited. Now the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong is 2500-2620 yuan, and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2660-2680 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2580 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2625-2675 yuan; The mainstream factory price of urea in Shanxi is 2600 yuan and the large particle price is 2600 yuan. Although the urea price is still rising, the downstream market is not very optimistic about the later stage of urea, mainly in the following aspects:

First, export restrictions. Since the implementation of legal inspection for export, the export market has been forced to stop. Even if the price of major import markets such as India has risen recently, it is completely separated from the domestic market. The storage of urea in most export ports has continued to decline. Except for the goods in some bonded areas, no new urea goods have arrived recently. It is expected to ensure the relative stability of the domestic market as a whole, The legal inspection of fertilizer export will be implemented for a long time, while the way of domestic enterprises adjusting production capacity pressure and price trend through export will be suspended for a period of time, and the initiative of price adjustment will be slightly lower than that of last year.

Secondly, the decline of raw material costs. Recently, urea and other coal consuming enterprises not only need to find low-cost sources of coal, but also need the long-term contract given by the coal mine to the factory, which suddenly drops from the price of more than 3000 yuan to less than 1000 yuan. Due to the high attention of relevant departments to the coal price, although the coal price is not likely to decline sharply in the later stage, it is less likely to rise. Based on the current cost calculation, At this stage, there are still considerable profits in domestic urea. Once the sales are blocked, the inventory of the factory will be overstocked, and the price may still decline.

Finally, this year's urea supply may be higher than last year. Although gas head urea enterprises have been emphasizing that they will stop production this month, this year's environmental protection policy may reduce the production of urea enterprises. The overall coal head production is estimated to be higher than that in the same period last year, while the export is limited, and the overall supply of urea may be higher than that in the same period in previous years, This is also the main reason why only some traders purchase moderately after November.

To sum up, the urea market has been rising steadily recently, but the downstream market is mainly on the sidelines, while traders' procurement enthusiasm is relatively general. It is expected that the recent trend of urea price will be difficult to increase significantly without obvious positive injection.