Recently, the hot spot in the domestic fertilizer market is the legal inspection of fertilizer export, followed by the regulation and intervention of the national development and Reform Commission on coal supply and price. The industry thought that the price of urea could fall, but it did not. The price of urea is still high and firm. As of Friday evening, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei was 3170-3200 yuan / ton, Although the urea receiving price in Linyi, Shandong Province is frequently adjusted, it remains above 3100 yuan / ton; At the same time, the price of raw coal is still tight, and it is difficult to significantly reduce the price of urea for a while. Under the high price of urea, ammonium chloride can enjoy the cool.

Due to the shortage of coal supply, some fertilizer enterprises and chemical enterprises said that the supply of coal was too few, and the price was raised at a high level, the cost of enterprises was increasing, and some enterprises even lost money, so some enterprises reduced the load; The subsequent supply of coal depends on the degree of drying capacity, which is still variable; In addition, under the influence of power rationing, dual control of energy consumption and environmental protection, some enterprises may also temporarily reduce production or stop production, but the demand performance is general, the delivery of goods in the off-season is scattered, and the large agricultural materials suppliers operate cautiously, focusing on mining as needed, increasing the risk of light storage, waiting while waiting for the price to return to the rational level; In terms of compound fertilizer, the cost of raw fertilizer and energy raw materials increases, the sales progress is slow, the bid is blocked, and many factors are superimposed. Its overall operating rate is only 29.4%, and the purchase of raw urea is relatively limited; At the same time, due to the high price of raw fertilizer and low inventory, the progress of winter storage of compound fertilizer may not be smooth, and it is still waiting for the progress after the phosphorus and compound fertilizer meeting at the end of the month. Under the pressure of not too high cost, it is unlikely that urea enterprises will lose money and reduce prices, which may lead to the risk that some enterprises will be forced to stop production, which still has a certain degree of support for ammonium chloride.

In addition to urea, which can be relied on, the supply and demand of ammonium chloride market itself is also the key. At present, the domestic ammonium chloride market is good, the production enterprises have no inventory pressure, and there are orders to be issued, and the price remains at a high level. From the supply side, on the one hand, under the influence of dual control of energy consumption such as power restriction, the start-up of most ammonium chloride enterprises in central and East China is limited, and the load is only about 5-70%. Another few enterprises are in the late stage of maintenance, and their resumption time should be at the end of the month or the beginning of the next month, and the production restriction due to environmental protection inspection that may be faced in some areas in the future should also be taken into account. From the demand side, the main downstream market of ammonium chloride is compound fertilizer enterprises. As mentioned above, the overall operation of compound fertilizer enterprises is too low, and the purchase volume of ammonium chloride is also limited; The operating level of extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises is also in the general state; Dealers are more resistant to the price of ammonium chloride, and procurement is carried out on demand. In particular, the progress of winter storage in Northeast China is slow. Compared with the price in the same period last year, the ex factory quotation of dry ammonium in East China and central China this year is about 600-650 yuan / ton higher than that in the same period. Even if there are few ammonium chloride stocks in the downstream market, the high price aggravates the wait-and-see mood, and the winter storage front may be lengthened; However, if the start-up of soda enterprises continues to be low and there is no obvious regulation on coal supply and price, ammonium chloride may continue to be tight. In addition, after the legal inspection of ammonium chloride export, the export quantity and progress in the later stage may be limited to a certain extent. The price of soda ash is high, the inventory in the industry is low, and the market expectation is better. From the perspective of double ton cost and profit, the enterprise focuses on soda ash, so the price increase of ammonium chloride is limited or stable, which is also acceptable.

Overall, in the short term, ammonium chloride can rely on the high price support of urea, the tight high cost support of coal, the relatively tight supply under low start-up, the expectation of ammonium chloride is still good, continue to maintain a good operation rhythm, and there are still opportunities or space for rise in some parts; However, after all, the start-up of compound fertilizer enterprises is low, the procurement of ammonium chloride is small, and the progress of winter storage is slow, so the rise of ammonium chloride is slow and the range is limited. In addition, we should pay attention to the adjustment of policies.