In the past two days, the domestic urea price fell faster and wider. Due to the reduction of cost, the obstruction of export, the weakness of demand and other factors, the transaction of urea production enterprises was not smooth, and the inventory was increasing. The production focus of some enterprises was transferred from urea to liquid ammonia, and the price continued to develop towards the bottom; Looking at the start-up of urea, a few gas head urea enterprises have reduced their start-up or are preparing to stop production recently, but the coal supply is sufficient. The urea enterprises parked in Shanxi are also resuming production. The overall start-up can be described as one ebb and flow, the supply is still surplus, the price has not yet reached the end, and the market is also choosing the opportunity to reserve at low prices.

At present, most urea enterprises are mainly acquiring in order to reduce the inventory pressure caused by high load and comprehensively reduce the price. At present, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shanxi is reduced to about 2380-2410 yuan / ton, the ex factory reference of low price transaction of urea in Inner Mongolia is only 2150 yuan / ton, and the market price is also decreasing. The receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi, Shandong Province is also reduced to 2400-2450 yuan / ton. Under the sharp and accelerated downward trend of urea price, it may stimulate the opportunity and weak storage hope of large agricultural materials suppliers to a certain extent; However, the cost and sales pressure of compound fertilizer enterprises are large, the enthusiasm for taking delivery of urea is not high, and a variety of factors restrict urea.

On the one hand, the supply side of urea market is still surplus, and enterprises will inevitably have inventory pressure. At present, a few gas head urea enterprises in southwest and Northwest China are expected to reduce production or stop production. Some urea enterprises in Anhui have shifted their production focus to liquid ammonia, but the urea enterprises stopped in Shanxi have resumed production. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, up to now, the total daily output of urea is still about 145000 tons. On the one hand, the price of liquid ammonia in many places has fallen sharply, and the production focus of the enterprise has the risk of turning back to urea; On the other hand, with the fall of the regulation of raw coal price, the cost of urea enterprises is reduced, the coal supply is sufficient, and the starting place of most enterprises is under high load. Although the natural gas supply is limited and the price is expected to rise, it is still relatively limited compared with the same period of previous years, resulting in high starting of the whole industry of urea enterprises and difficult to reduce the pressure on supply.

On the other hand, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the urea market is strong and the demand progress is slow. First, the demand of the agricultural market is off-season, the interval between fertilizer use in spring is long, the terminal has no procurement plan, and the grass-roots dealers have not started to prepare fertilizer yet; Although it is supported by the national reserve task, the continuous decline of urea price aggravates the market's psychology of buying up or not buying down, which has not yet reached its psychological expected price, and the purchase of urea is promoted slowly; Second, the start-up of the industrial plywood plant is low, and it is difficult to recover under the influence of environmental protection and other factors. Looking at the weak market of compound fertilizer, the current cost is reduced, and the winter storage prices and policies are introduced one after another, but the overall demand is weak, resulting in its low production enthusiasm. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the start-up rate is less than 30%, The purchase quantity of raw fertilizer is not much; Third, the export of urea is limited. The excess supply has increased the sales pressure on the domestic market, or there is no possibility of opening up the export for a long time. Therefore, the pressure on the domestic market has increased during this period.

Finally, from the perspective of both supply and demand, the supply of urea remains unchanged, but the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of urea will be under pressure and the bottom will be mainly downward in the near future; However, we can look forward to the light storage in the later stage and the delivery progress of the compound fertilizer plant.