At present, potassium chloride does not rise much, and a few quotations also decline slightly, but generally speaking, it is more appropriate to maintain stability, or a strong high level. Urea rises and falls, and ammonium phosphate, which is restricted from export, has also become frost eggplant, making it difficult for compound fertilizer enterprises. Why don't you drop the high potassium fertilizer? Everyone is looking forward to it. Finally - urea has risen

In recent days, urea has rebounded by tens of hundreds of yuan, which is not large and can be paid much attention. Urea is a kind of fertilizer with the nature of wind vane. Its recent sharp rise and fall have had a great impact on the mood of winter storage and preparation in the chemical fertilizer market. Because the overall fertilizer price is high year-on-year, the lower reaches are afraid of falling and waiting for falling for all chemical fertilizers; However, on the one hand, it is almost December, but the downstream is still crying for food. On the other hand, ammonium phosphate and potassium fertilizer are not easy to rise, but they do not fall very much. Therefore, the rebound of urea seems to have caught a glimmer of hope for the start of winter storage.

After a while, I said that the price of natural gas would rise and the gas head urea would stop production; After a while, I said that the export is expected to be released, and someone is already preparing to gather in the port; It will be said that the Winter Olympics is going to stop production. It is obviously a rumor. The pictures of the so-called stop production notice have been spread... I don't know whether the people who have lost money in front, want to make a lot of money, or really care about fertilizer and food security. It seems that they are not only satisfied with seeing hope, but also want to firmly grasp it!
Whether urea fluctuates periodically or rebounds, in short, the start of winter storage is indeed an urgent thing. So, do we expect potassium chloride to fall? Is there any possibility of falling?
Objectively speaking, it is really difficult to drop the price, and it is unlikely to fall greatly. At present, the international CIF price of potassium chloride ranges from 600-800 US dollars / ton. It is rumored that there has been contact in the negotiation of large contracts, and the initial asking price of foreign investors is also above 600 US dollars / ton. The most recent reference block transaction is the CIF price of 445 US dollars / ton of the remaining volume of large contracts in 2021 re signed by India. The key is that if the long-term import supplement is insufficient, we will be more passive, What's more, the internal heart is still uneven. Therefore, on the whole, the negotiation of the new large contract will be very difficult and the price will not be low.

US $445-600 / ton, equivalent to 62% of the port white potassium 3300-4400 yuan / ton after conversion. At present, the market price is about 4100 yuan / ton, which seems to have a large downward space, but if it is purely objective, it is more likely to be upward. Therefore, the author has been suggesting and calling for early talks and early signing since April. Later, I hope the government can directly give some help. However, we have seen the crisis and efforts, but we have not seen the expected results. Potassium chloride rebounded for hundreds and stopped "consciously". So far, we haven't seen any new measures or heard any new news about big contracts. Now urea has rebounded. What will happen to the future market of chemical fertilizer? Maybe if some nitrogen and phosphorus are lost, it's ok if the potassium fertilizer doesn't rise? Maybe it's OK to rely on demand reduction?

Now, if the price of potassium chloride wants to come down, we can only learn how it rose at the beginning. Until now, the price of potassium chloride has been rising because of the possible shortage of supply. Yes, it's "possible". Then, the author still wants to remind the industry that although it seems that potassium chloride is difficult to go down, relevant departments may still directly help, or they may be forced to sign at a high price and give policy compensation. Yes, it's also possible.