Recently, due to the impact of the epidemic, the transportation is limited in some areas, which has increased the transportation and inventory pressure of some urea enterprises, and the progress of market demand has been forced to be suspended. On the other hand, this has improved the delivery of some other unaffected urea enterprises, with certain differences in market performance. The mainstream price is high, and a slight rebound of about 20-30 yuan / ton has begun after a partial decline.

The transportation in Cangzhou, Hebei Province is limited, and some enterprises are under pressure for shipment temporarily. The price has fluctuated by 30 yuan / ton recently, and the mainstream ex factory quotation is temporarily stable at about 2860-2890 yuan / ton; The progress of agricultural demand delivery in Shandong, Henan and Northeast China is relatively good. After the price increase of industrial compound fertilizer, raw materials are also being purchased. The demand support of industry and agriculture and the impact of local transportation have led to the increase of urea price. Now the receiving price of urea by Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer factory has risen to 2930 yuan / ton, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan has risen to about 2860-2880 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Heilongjiang has risen to 3060 yuan / ton, It has reached the highest price in the market. The price of urea should remain high after the recovery of transportation and the supplement demand of local industry and agriculture. However, due to the slowdown of some market demand, there should be no obvious increase in urea, and the price consolidation operation should be the main operation.
First, the operating level of urea is high, with a total daily output of about 168000 tons. On the one hand, the urea price is running at a high level, the enterprise has high production enthusiasm, and there is no active shutdown and maintenance plan in the peak fertilizer season in spring; On the other hand, on the premise of ensuring supply, all urea enterprises start work at a high level to ensure the smooth progress of spring farming; Moreover, with the release of light storage fertilizer, the supply of goods in the urea market has increased, which has restrained the price rise, and alleviated the shortage of local goods at the same time; In addition, due to the impact of the epidemic, the transportation is limited, and the transportation pressure of liquid ammonia related to urea production increases. Some enterprises adjust the production focus to urea to alleviate the shipping pressure of liquid ammonia. Therefore, the output of urea has increased significantly. For this reason, the price of liquid ammonia has been "Crazy" rising recently, with an increase of more than 350-500 yuan / ton. Then, after the transportation is restored, the production focus of some enterprises will inevitably return to liquid ammonia, especially under the high price and high profit, which attracts enterprises to produce more liquid ammonia, so the total daily output of urea should be reduced.
Secondly, the demand follow-up performance of urea is different, but the high price increases the procurement risk in the industry, so the market is carried out on demand. The demand for agriculture is relatively good, but due to the impact of the epidemic and limited transportation, the procurement and fertilizer use time of urea are slightly delayed, and the price of urea is high, and the resistance at the grass-roots level is becoming stronger. At the same time, the pressure of intermediate dealers is also increasing. Purchase on demand, or purchase some granular nitrogen fertilizer with relatively low price to replace part of urea; The predicted risk increases with the increase of urea traders; In terms of industry, the price of compound fertilizer has risen and the orders are sufficient, so the production enthusiasm of enterprises is relatively high, but the price of small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride has risen to a high level. Compared with urea, the advantage of low price has been reduced, and some compound fertilizer enterprises still focus on urea; However, the export of urea is still limited, the export quantity is limited and the progress is slow.
Thirdly, the cost support of urea enterprises is still sufficient, the local coal price has increased, and the cost of urea enterprises has increased to a certain extent; In addition, from the perspective of the international situation and international prices, the domestic urea price will inevitably fluctuate at a high level.
Finally, in a comprehensive view, the recent urea start-up is high, and the transportation is limited due to the impact of the epidemic in some parts. Therefore, the arrival speed and delivery progress are slowing down, and the local demand and fertilizer use time are delayed. In addition, the urea price is always high, the terminal resistance is getting stronger, and the overall market may be weak to a certain extent; However, after all, there is still demand expectation, and the downstream delivery progress will be promoted after the transportation is restored, so the price will remain high and volatile.