The recent rise of urea market price has been suspended for a while. Since Thursday, urea futures began to fall. The rise of some factories has slowed down slightly, and even the price of some factories has declined. Now the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2850-2880 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of compound fertilizer to urea in Linyi is 2880 yuan, and the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei is 2890-2900 yuan, The mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Henan is 2840-2860 yuan, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shanxi is 2760-2790 yuan, and the large particle ex factory quotation is 2760-2830 yuan. However, the urea futures close slightly on Thursday and Friday, the market demand remains, the social inventory is relatively low, and the potential purchasing power of the market is strong. Although the market acceptance is limited at this stage, the market inquiry volume remains relatively high, While waiting for the price reduction of urea, some downstream markets are also worried about the shortage of supply in the later stage, and the actual demand gap in the market still exists, resulting in the current tangled state mainly as follows:
First, whether relevant policies can be implemented. The recent market price rise is mainly due to the change of mentality. The price of some mainstream fertilizers began to rise significantly, the market panic mentality increased, and the demand gap was large. After centralized procurement, although the daily output of urea market was about 160000 tons, it also seemed relatively tight. Even it was rumored that the topdressing market in Northeast China had also started, and the demand for spot goods was more urgent. At this stage, the two sessions have ended, The rapid return to calm after the sharp rise of urea is obviously to wait and see whether the relevant departments can introduce corresponding management measures and implement them, which will also be one of the main factors determining whether the urea price can decline significantly.
Secondly, the trend of coal price determines the support of cost. The international energy price has fluctuated abnormally recently, but in order to ensure the relative stability of the domestic economy, the coal price has been regulated seriously recently. The relevant departments of most main coal mining areas have issued a reasonable range. Although some enterprises still purchase coal with relatively high-end price at this stage, the comprehensive high-end cost calculation shows that the selling price still has a profit of more than 100 yuan at this stage, so there is a basis for significant price fluctuation of urea, This is also one of the reasons for the downstream to keep relatively cautious in taking goods.
Finally, whether the light storage source can be put into operation in time. It is rumored that the national commercial light storage of chemical fertilizer can be put on the market as early as early March, and the price of urea is rising at this stage. If the initial reserve of light storage is abundant enough, the shortage in the market should not be too serious. Whether the later reserve can be put into the market in time is still uncertain, the market uncertainty increases, and it is slightly difficult for dealers to purchase.
To sum up, the overall wait-and-see increase in the urea market in the near future is not only the downstream traders, but also the upstream factories. They are also waiting to see whether the relevant departments can intervene strongly in the near future, and the market variables increase. If there is no obvious intervention, after the recent narrow decline in the price of urea, the market will enter the market to pick up goods again, and the price may rebound.