Although the mainstream trend of domestic urea is weak recently, only partial prices have decreased slightly, and the overall price has always been high. The pressure of downstream and terminal farmers has increased significantly compared with previous years, and the guarantee of supply and stable price seems to be gradually forgotten. The price of domestic chemical fertilizer should not have been so high; It was the season of preparing fertilizer for spring ploughing, and the goods should have been delivered in a hot stage. However, due to the impact of the sudden epidemic, local transportation was limited, resulting in a slowdown in the arrival progress of chemical fertilizer, a delay in the time of fertilizer use, and a partial decline in the price of urea. However, due to the poor transportation, the background of inflation, environmental protection, production restriction and other temporary conditions, there may be no room for a big decline in the price of urea in the short term. Look at ammonium chloride in nitrogen fertilizer, but it has maintained a rising market all the way, and the domestic supply is tight, and the price continues to rise, surpassing the historical high. However, only considering the price rise can not solve the problem of shortage of actual supply in the market, so it needs rational operation.

At present, the price of urea in the main domestic production areas fluctuates slightly. For example, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Henan is about 2860-2910 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Northeast China is about 2930-2990 yuan / ton. As of yesterday, the receiving price of urea by Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer factory has risen to about 3010 yuan / ton. The next trend needs to pay attention to the supply, demand and transportation.

On the one hand, the supply of urea is sufficient, and the start-up trend in the first half of the month is on the rise. For example, individual maintenance enterprises in Anhui and Hebei will resume production. In the early stage, the output of urea enterprises in Jincheng area has been restored due to the change of environmental protection production restriction policy, and the start-up of urea enterprises will not be too low in order to maintain supply and stable price; Moreover, the price of liquid ammonia in the northern market has dropped recently, and the transportation is also under pressure. Therefore, some enterprises may slightly tilt the production focus to urea; Based on the above situation, the daily output of urea should remain above 160000 tons for a long time. On the other hand, the demand for urea follows up. The demand for urea in agriculture is weakened, and the urea price remains high. In addition, affected by the epidemic, the downstream procurement is carried out on demand; Moreover, the transportation cost of input increases. Under the expectation of the increase of inventory of some production enterprises, large traders take goods higher in and higher out, and look forward to the low-cost source of goods under the release of output in the later stage; The procurement progress of industrial compound fertilizer plant and plywood plant is relatively good, which has a certain support for the current urea price.

Due to the high price of urea, there are certain reasons for the high price or even price increase of ammonium chloride. From the price point of view alone, ammonium chloride is still slightly lower than urea. Now the mainstream ex factory quotation of dry ammonium chloride has risen to about 1400-1600 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous rise of the price of ammonium chloride, its low price advantage will be weakened. Therefore, it is not wise to blindly rise even if the goods of ammonium chloride go smoothly. At present, the domestic ammonium chloride market is "excellent", the supply is tight, the enterprises have sufficient orders to be issued, the prices rise one after another, and continue to exceed the high price, which also breaks the traditional view and price positioning level of ammonium chloride in the industry. The wholesale price of downstream traders is beyond imagination, but it also increases the risk coefficient in the later stage.

According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, up to now, about 73% of the combined alkali enterprises have started work. Due to the dual impact of the epidemic and environmental protection and production restriction, some ammonium chloride enterprises in East China have been forced to stop production or limit production. Due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction, the overall start-up of individual ammonium chloride enterprises in Northwest China shows a downward trend, which aggravates the shortage of supply, and there are sufficient orders to be issued by each plant, Therefore, the supply of ammonium chloride will continue to be tight in the short term at least in the middle and early April. Looking at the demand, the purchase of ammonium chloride by the compound fertilizer plant maintains a good trend, and the follow-up progress of the new order is good; Traders have limited sources of goods and high profits, so their enthusiasm for taking goods is still very high; The operation of extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises also remained at a high level. On the whole, the demand for ammonium chloride is good and the supply is tight, but the price has risen to a high level, which has exceeded the downstream expectations. It is inevitable to increase resistance in the follow-up, so it is more necessary to operate with caution.

Finally, in a comprehensive view, the supply of urea is sufficient, the industrial and agricultural demand is flat, and the duration of limited transportation is unpredictable. Therefore, its price should be high and volatile. Supported by urea, ammonium chloride has a tight supply of its own goods, with local low prices or catching up, but the shortage can not be solved by blindly increasing the price, which is also an irrational move. Moreover, the increase of transportation costs in the downstream market is equivalent to a disguised price increase. I hope we should be cautious in price adjustment or taking goods in the upstream and downstream markets.