Although the epidemic situation in some regions has eased slightly recently, with the support of relevant departments, the impact on chemical fertilizer transportation has gradually changed from large-scale to small-scale and single point control. The transportation in Shanxi and other places has recovered slightly. Although it can not ship in sufficient quantity, it can also slightly reduce the pressure caused by inventory. However, the shipment problem of factories in some mainstream regions still has a great impact. The transaction of new orders in Northeast China is still cautious, mainly in spot, In addition, the epidemic control is relatively large, and there are still some doubts about whether the fire transportation can arrive in time. The price remains stable, and there are signs of slight increase in the price in some regions. Now the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong is 2830-2920 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2890 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2930-2980 yuan; The ex factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2860 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi is 2800 yuan, that of large particles is 2820-2890 yuan, and that of mainstream urea in Heilongjiang is 3010 yuan. Although some industry insiders believe that the current urea market has a large supply and relatively general demand, and the price may show signs of decline in the near future, the price of urea is unlikely to decline significantly in the near future, mainly due to the following reasons:

First, transportation is blocked. At present, according to the information fed back by the market, the shipment in some regions is still subject to great restrictions, and the control of automobile transportation is also relatively strict. Once the Yellow code is assigned, the drivers are forced to isolate, which leads to the recent increase of automobile transportation freight, which makes it difficult for the current new orders to be shipped even if the transaction is concluded, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is naturally relatively slow. The factory does not need to reduce the price to attract orders.

Secondly, the pull of regional demand. At the end of the agricultural season in North China, the agricultural demand decreased, the commencement of compound fertilizer was affected to a certain extent, and the demand for raw materials of compound fertilizer factories along the river decreased after a round of replenishment; The demand of industrial board factories is also relatively general. Although there is still demand in the southern market, the quantity of spot goods is relatively general. On the whole, the domestic demand is relatively general. However, the regional market demand still exists. Both the industrial and agricultural markets still pay high attention to the current urea. Driven by some hard demand and the uncertainty of the punctual arrival of foreign goods, some regions will show a concentrated reflection of local demand, and the price will be raised to a certain extent. There will be similar price increases in some regions of Shandong recently.

Finally, some factories remain to be issued. Although the inventory quantity of most factories has increased recently, the fire transportation and shipment situation has been gradually restored, and the early railway dispatching order ended in the afternoon of April 16. Except for some high-risk areas, the epidemic has gradually improved, and the later railway transportation quantity will gradually increase. Although the current inventory problem can not be completely solved, it can also make the factory breathe a sigh of relief temporarily.

In conclusion, the price of urea may fluctuate in the short term, and even the price of urea in some regions may continue to rise. It is not even ruled out that the price rise in most regions will lead to the price rise across the country. However, after all, the increase of hard demand in the short term is relatively small, while the domestic supply quantity remains at the level of more than 160000 tons, and the cost support is relatively weak. Therefore, the price of urea may decline in the later stage, It's just that I can't see the big fall for the time being.